ArticlePloS one2024
Evaluating the performance of a risk assessment score tool to predict HIV acquisition among pregnant and postpartum women in Kenya.
Article in PloS one, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Pooled it
- Prevention Effective Practice: Development and Preliminary Evaluation of a Proposed Composite Outcome for Status-Neutral HIV Prevention Research.AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
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9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundClinical risk score tools require validation in diverse settings and populations before they are widely implemented. We aimed to externally validate an HIV risk assessment tool for predicting HIV acquisition among pregnant and postpartum women. In the context of prevention of mother-to-child transmission programs, risk score tools could be used to prioritize retesting efforts and delivery of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to pregnant and postpartum women most at risk for HIV acquisition while minimizing unnecessary perinatal exposure.
methodsData from women enrolled in a cross-sectional study of programmatic HIV retesting and/or receiving maternal and child health care services at five facilities in Western Kenya were used to validate the predictive ability of a simplified risk score previously developed for pregnant/postpartum women. Incident HIV infections were defined as new HIV diagnoses following confirmed negative or unknown status during pregnancy. Predictive performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Brier score.
resultsAmong 1266 women with 35 incident HIV infections, we found an AUC for predicting HIV acquisition of 0.60 (95% CI, 0.51, 0.69), with a Brier score of 0.27. A risk score >6 was associated with a 2.9-fold increase in the odds of HIV acquisition (95% CI, 1.48, 5.70; p = 0.002) vs scores ≤6. Women with risk scores >6 were 27% (346/1266) of the population but accounted for 52% of HIV acquisitions. Syphilis, age at sexual debut, and unknown partner HIV status were significantly associated with increased risk of HIV in this cohort.
conclusionThe simplified risk score performed moderately at predicting risk of HIV acquisition in this population of pregnant and postpartum women and may be useful to guide PrEP use or counseling.
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