ArticleThoracic cancer2024
Trends and projection of burden on lung cancer and risk factors in China from 1990 to 2060.
Article in Thoracic cancer, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Economics, efficacy and safety of five traditional Chinese medicine injections plus chemotherapy as adjuvant therapy for non-small cell lung cancer: A network meta-analysis.International journal of clinical pharmacy · 2025Pooled it
- Postoperative infection risk factors in lung cancer patients after bronchoalveolar lavage.Journal of thoracic disease · 2026Article
- Acceptance of Lung Cancer Screening and Associated Factors in Hong Kong: A Population-Based Study.Cancer medicine · 2026Article
- Trends in incidence and mortality of lung cancer and age-period-cohort model analysis in Zibo, Shandong Province, 2014-2024.Frontiers in oncology · 2026Article
- Predictive nomogram for risk of pulmonary infection in lung cancer patients undergoing radiochemotherapy: development and performance evaluation.American journal of cancer research · 2025Article
- CAF-derived exosome-miR-3124-5p promotes malignant biological processes in NSCLC via the TOLLIP/TLR4-MyD88-NF-κB pathway.Oncology research · 2025Article
- Association between genetic mutations in lung adenocarcinoma and adult body mass index: a retrospective cohort study.Frontiers in oncology · 2025Article
- Trends and projection of burden on lung cancer and risk factors in China from 1990 to 2060.Thoracic cancer · 2024Article
- The trends of lung cancer burden in BRICS from 1990 to 2021 and its projection to 2035.Frontiers in oncology · 2024Article
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Abstract
backgroundLung cancer (LC) is currently the number one malignancy death rate disease in China, and its disease burden is serious. The study aimed to analyze trends of LC and its risk factor attributable disease in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict the next 41 years.
methodsThe average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to analyze the trend of LC and its risk factor attributable incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate in China from 1990 to 2019, collected in the Global Burden of Disease 2019. Cochran-Armitage trends examine trends in lung cancer disease burden by sex, age, and attributable risk factor groups in China from 1990 to 2019. In addition, based on data on death and DALYs rate due to LC and its risk factors between 1990 and 2019, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was developed to predict the change in the trend of burden of disease due to LC and its risk factors over the next 41 years, and the model was evaluated using the model parameters root mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error.
resultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the incidence, mortality and DALYs of LC were all increased. Among the eight risk factors associated with lung cancer, the DALYs rate and mortality rate of lung cancer risk factors for Chinese residents increased from 1990 to 2019, except for household air pollution from solid fuels and diet low in fruit, which showed a decrease; among them, the DALYs rate and mortality rate due to ambient particulate matter pollution showed the greatest increase with AAPC values of 2.880 and 3.310, respectively, while DALYs and mortality rates due to household air pollution from solid fuels showed the largest decreases, with AAPC values of -4.755 and -4.348, respectively. The results of the ARIMA model predictions show that both the mortality rate and the rate of DALYs for lung cancer are increasing yearly, and it is predicted that the rate of DALYs for lung cancer by 2060 will reach 740.095/100 000 and the mortality rate will reach 35.151/100 000. It is expected that by 2060, the top four risk factors for lung cancer in China will be, in order of DALYs rate and mortality rate, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG), and secondhand smoke, with HFPG showing the greatest increase.
conclusionsThe LC burden increased from 1990 to 2019 in China, the LC burden that could be attributed to HFPG will continue to increase in the next 40 years, and will be the third most factor by 2060. Targeted interventions are warranted to facilitate the prevention of LC and improvement of health-related quality of life patients with LC.
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