ArticleBMC gastroenterology2024
Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting survival in elderly patients with severe acute pancreatitis: a retrospective study from a tertiary center.
Article in BMC gastroenterology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Predictive modeling for mortality risk in elderly patients with pulmonary embolism using machine learning algorithms.Frontiers in medicine · 2026Article
- Article
- Clinical utility of the lactate-to-albumin ratio for predicting mortality in elderly severe acute pancreatitis.Frontiers in medicine · 2026Article
- Development of a prediction method for severe pancreatitis using a nomogram.Frontiers in medicine · 2026Article
- Risk factor analysis and nomogram development for survival prediction in obese patients with severe acute pancreatitis: a retrospective study.BMC gastroenterology · 2025Article
- Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
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Abstract
purposeThere is a lack of adequate models specifically designed for elderly patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) to predict the risk of death. This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of SAP in elderly patients.
methodsElderly patients diagnosed with SAP between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2022 were included in the study. Risk factors were identified through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis. Subsequently, a novel nomogram model was developed using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using metrics such as the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).
resultsA total of 326 patients were included in the analysis, with 260 in the survival group and 66 in the deceased group. Multivariate logistic regression indicated that age, respiratory rate, arterial pH, total bilirubin, and calcium were independent prognostic factors for the survival of SAP patients. The nomogram demonstrated a performance comparable to sequential organ failure assessment (P = 0.065). Additionally, the calibration curve showed satisfactory predictive accuracy, and the DCA highlighted the clinical application value of the nomogram.
conclusionWe have identified key demographic and laboratory parameters that are associated with the survival of elderly patients with SAP. These parameters have been utilized to create a precise and user-friendly nomogram, which could be an effective and valuable clinical tool for clinicians.
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