Climate change will lead to range shifts and genetic diversity losses of dung beetles in the Gobi Desert and Mongolian Steppe.

Desertification is known to be a major threat to biodiversity, yet our understanding of the consequent decline in biodiversity remains insufficient. Here, we predicted climate change-induced range shifts and genetic diversity losses in three model dung beetles: Colobopterus erraticus, Cheironitis eumenes, and Gymnopleurus mopsus, distributed across the Gobi Desert and Mongolian Steppe, areas known for desertification. Phylogeographic analyses of mitochondrial COI sequences and species distribution modeling, based on extensive field investigations spanning 14 years, were performed. Species confined to a single biome were predicted to contract and shift their distribution in response to climate change, whereas widespread species was predicted to expand even if affected by range shifts. We indicated that all species are expected to experience significant haplotype losses, yet the presence of high singleton frequencies and low genetic divergence across geographic configurations and lineages mitigate loss of genetic diversity. Notably, Cheironitis eumenes, a desert species with low genetic diversity, appears to be the most vulnerable to climate change due to the extensive degradation in the Gobi Desert. This is the first study to predict the response of insects to desertification in the Gobi Desert. Our findings highlight that dung beetles in the Gobi Desert and Mongolian Steppe might experience high rates of occupancy turnover and genetic loss, which could reshuffle the species composition.