Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38965432›Full record

ArticleNature medicine2024

Evaluation and mitigation of the limitations of large language models in clinical decision-making.

Paul Hager, Friederike Jungmann, Robbie Holland, Kunal Bhagat, Inga Hubrecht, Manuel Knauer, Jakob Vielhauer, Marcus Makowski, Rickmer Braren, Georgios Kaissis and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature medicine, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 344 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
344citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

344 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. Generative large language models in the clinical management of Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment.Neurological sciences : official journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology · 2026
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  20. [Application effect of LLMs as decision-support tools in emergency burn treatment].Zhonghua shao shang yu chuang mian xiu fu za zhi · 2026
    Article

284 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Paul Hager *Institute for AI and Informatics, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany. paul.hager@tum.de.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2166-0262
Friederike Jungmann *Institute for AI and Informatics, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9600-4094
Robbie HollandDepartment of Computing, Imperial College, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8373-8390
Kunal BhagatDepartment of Medicine, ChristianaCare Health System, Wilmington, DE, USA.
Inga HubrechtDepartment of Medicine III, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.
Manuel KnauerDepartment of Medicine III, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3475-2396
Jakob VielhauerDepartment of Medicine II, University Hospital of the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3762-1575
Marcus MakowskiInstitute for Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8778-647X
Rickmer BrarenInstitute for Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6039-6957
Georgios KaissisInstitute for AI and Informatics, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8382-8062
Daniel RueckertInstitute for AI and Informatics, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Clinical decision-making is one of the most impactful parts of a physician's responsibilities and stands to benefit greatly from artificial intelligence solutions and large language models (LLMs) in particular. However, while LLMs have achieved excellent performance on medical licensing exams, these tests fail to assess many skills necessary for deployment in a realistic clinical decision-making environment, including gathering information, adhering to guidelines, and integrating into clinical workflows. Here we have created a curated dataset based on the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database spanning 2,400 real patient cases and four common abdominal pathologies as well as a framework to simulate a realistic clinical setting. We show that current state-of-the-art LLMs do not accurately diagnose patients across all pathologies (performing significantly worse than physicians), follow neither diagnostic nor treatment guidelines, and cannot interpret laboratory results, thus posing a serious risk to the health of patients. Furthermore, we move beyond diagnostic accuracy and demonstrate that they cannot be easily integrated into existing workflows because they often fail to follow instructions and are sensitive to both the quantity and order of information. Overall, our analysis reveals that LLMs are currently not ready for autonomous clinical decision-making while providing a dataset and framework to guide future studies.

Indexed as

Clinical Decision-MakingArtificial IntelligenceDecision Support Systems, ClinicalHumans

Identifiers

PMID38965432
PMCPMC11405275

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.