Cost Offset of Dapagliflozin in the US Medicare Population with Cardio-Kidney Metabolic Syndrome.

introductionCardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome is highly prevalent in the US Medicare population and is projected to increase further. Sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors have indications in chronic kidney disease (CKD), heart failure (HF), and type 2 diabetes (T2D), providing protective efficacy across conditions within CKM syndrome. The objective of this study was to develop a model to extrapolate key outcomes observed in pivotal clinical trials to the US Medicare population, and to assess the potential direct cost offsets associated with dapagliflozin therapy.

methodsAll US 2022 Medicare beneficiaries (≥ 65 years of age) eligible to receive dapagliflozin were estimated according to drug label indication and Medicare enrollment and claims data. Incidence of key outcomes from the dapagliflozin clinical program were modelled over a 4-year time horizon based on patient-level data with CKD, HF, and T2D. Published cost data of relevant clinical outcomes were used to calculate direct medical care cost-offset associated with treatment with dapagliflozin.

resultsIn a population of 13.1 million patients with CKM syndrome, treatment with dapagliflozin in addition to historical standard of care (hSoC) versus hSoC alone led to fewer incidents of HF-related events (hospitalization for HF, 613,545; urgent HF visit, 98,896), renal events (kidney failure, 285,041; ≥ 50% sustained decline in kidney function, 375,137), and 450,355 fewer deaths (of which 225,346 and 13,206 incidences of cardiovascular and renal death were avoided). In total this led to medical care cost offsets of $99.3 billion versus treatment with hSoC only (dapagliflozin plus hSoC, $310.3 billion; hSoC, $211.0 billion).

conclusionBy extrapolating data from trials across multiple indications within CKM syndrome, this broader perspective shows that considerable medical care cost offsets may result through attenuated incidence of clinical events in CKD, T2D, and HF populations if treated with dapagliflozin in addition to hSoC over a 4-year time horizon. Graphical abstract available for this article.