ArticleComputation (Basel, Switzerland)2023
Mathematical Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Wave under Vaccination Effects.
Article in Computation (Basel, Switzerland), 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 intervention policies using a mathematical model: an optimal control approach.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Study of optimal vaccination strategies for early COVID-19 pandemic using an age-structured mathematical model: A case study of the USA.Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE · 2023Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic millions of deaths and hospitalizations have been reported. Different SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been recognized during this pandemic and some of these variants of concern have caused uncertainty and changes in the dynamics. The Omicron variant has caused a large amount of infected cases in the US and worldwide. The average number of deaths during the Omicron wave toll increased in comparison with previous SARS-CoV-2 waves. We studied the Omicron wave by using a highly nonlinear mathematical model for the COVID-19 pandemic. The novel model includes individuals who are vaccinated and asymptomatic, which influences the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, the model considers the waning of the immunity and efficacy of the vaccine against the Omicron strain. This study uses the facts that the Omicron strain has a higher transmissibility than the previous circulating SARS-CoV-2 strain but is less deadly. Preliminary studies have found that Omicron has a lower case fatality rate compared to previous circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains. The simulation results show that even if the Omicron strain is less deadly it might cause more deaths, hospitalizations and infections. We provide a variety of scenarios that help to obtain insight about the Omicron wave and its consequences. The proposed mathematical model, in conjunction with the simulations, provides an explanation for a large Omicron wave under various conditions related to vaccines and transmissibility. These results provide an awareness that new SARS-CoV-2 variants can cause more deaths even if their fatality rate is lower.
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