Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38956557›Full record

ArticleBMC public health2024

Global incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer and predicted mortality of gastric cancer by 2035.

Ju-Li Lin, Jian-Xian Lin, Guang-Tan Lin, Chang-Ming Huang, Chao-Hui Zheng, Jian-Wei Xie, Jia-Bin Wang, Jun Lu, Qi-Yue Chen, Ping Li

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMC public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT07565857 (SIGNAL GEC-101), which is not on this map. Cited by 86 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
86citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT07565857 nanot yet recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2026, after this paper: background citation

SIGNAL GEC-101: Signatera-Guided De-escalation of Adjuvant Therapy in Resectable Stage II-IVa Gastric/Gastric-Esophageal Cancer

TypeinterventionalSponsorNatera, Inc.Ran2026 to 2034Enrolled1,000ConditionsGastric-Esophageal CancerArmsSignatera Genome ultra-sensitive ctDNA blood test
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

86 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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26 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Ju-Li LinDepartment of Gastric Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, No.29 Xinquan Road, Fuzhou , Fujian Province, 350001, China.
Jian-Xian LinDepartment of Gastric Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, No.29 Xinquan Road, Fuzhou , Fujian Province, 350001, China.
Guang-Tan LinDepartment of Gastric Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, No.29 Xinquan Road, Fuzhou , Fujian Province, 350001, China.
Chang-Ming HuangDepartment of Gastric Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, No.29 Xinquan Road, Fuzhou , Fujian Province, 350001, China. hcmlr2002@163.com.
Chao-Hui ZhengDepartment of Gastric Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, No.29 Xinquan Road, Fuzhou , Fujian Province, 350001, China.
Jian-Wei XieDepartment of Gastric Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, No.29 Xinquan Road, Fuzhou , Fujian Province, 350001, China.
Jia-Bin WangDepartment of Gastric Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, No.29 Xinquan Road, Fuzhou , Fujian Province, 350001, China.
Jun LuDepartment of Gastric Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, No.29 Xinquan Road, Fuzhou , Fujian Province, 350001, China.
Qi-Yue ChenDepartment of Gastric Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, No.29 Xinquan Road, Fuzhou , Fujian Province, 350001, China.
Ping LiDepartment of Gastric Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, No.29 Xinquan Road, Fuzhou , Fujian Province, 350001, China. pingli811002@163.com.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo study the historical global incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer and predicted mortality of gastric cancer by 2035.

methodsIncidence data were retrieved from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) volumes I-XI, and mortality data were obtained from the latest update of the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database. We used join-point regression analysis to examine historical incidence and mortality trends and used the package NORDPRED in R to predict the number of deaths and mortality rates by 2035 by country and sex.

resultsMore than 1,089,000 new cases of gastric cancer and 769,000 related deaths were reported in 2020. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in the incidence of gastric cancer from 2003 to 2012 among the male population, South Korea, Japan, Malta, Canada, Cyprus, and Switzerland showed an increasing trend (P > 0.05); among the female population, Canada [AAPC, 1.2; (95%Cl, 0.5-2), P < 0.05] showed an increasing trend; and South Korea, Ecuador, Thailand, and Cyprus showed an increasing trend (P > 0.05). AAPC in the mortality of gastric cancer from 2006 to 2015 among the male population, Thailand [3.5 (95%cl, 1.6-5.4), P < 0.05] showed an increasing trend; Malta Island, New Zealand, Turkey, Switzerland, and Cyprus had an increasing trend (P > 0.05); among the male population aged 20-44, Thailand [AAPC, 3.4; (95%cl, 1.3-5.4), P < 0.05] showed an increasing trend; Norway, New Zealand, The Netherlands, Slovakia, France, Colombia, Lithuania, and the USA showed an increasing trend (P > 0.05). It is predicted that the mortality rate in Slovenia and France's female population will show an increasing trend by 2035. It is predicted that the absolute number of deaths in the Israeli male population and in Chile, France, and Canada female population will increase by 2035.

conclusionIn the past decade, the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer have shown a decreasing trend; however, there are still some countries showing an increasing trend, especially among populations younger than 45 years. Although mortality in most countries is predicted to decline by 2035, the absolute number of deaths due to gastric cancer may further increase due to population growth.

Indexed as

Global HealthStomach NeoplasmsFemaleForecastingHumansIncidenceMaleMortalitySex DistributionGlobal trendsIncidenceMortalityPredict mortalityStomach Neoplasms

Identifiers

PMID38956557
PMCPMC11221210

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.