Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38942998›Full record

ArticleNPJ precision oncology2024

A fully automated and explainable algorithm for predicting malignant transformation in oral epithelial dysplasia.

Adam J Shephard, Raja Muhammad Saad Bashir, Hanya Mahmood, Mostafa Jahanifar, Fayyaz Minhas, Shan E Ahmed Raza, Kris D McCombe, Stephanie G Craig, Jacqueline James, Jill Brooks and 4 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ precision oncology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Predicting Malignant Transformation in Oral Epithelial Dysplasia: A Systematic Comparison of Artificial Intelligence-Based Risk Models and Pathologist-Based Microscopy.Journal of oral pathology & medicine : official publication of the International Association of Oral Pathologists and the American Academy of Oral Pathology · 2026
    Pooled it
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  14. Oral leukoplakia: still an enigmatic disorder.Medicina oral, patologia oral y cirugia bucal · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Adam J ShephardTissue Image Analytics Centre, Department of Computer Science, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0969-2990
Raja Muhammad Saad BashirTissue Image Analytics Centre, Department of Computer Science, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
Hanya MahmoodSchool of Clinical Dentistry, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-0368
Mostafa JahanifarTissue Image Analytics Centre, Department of Computer Science, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
Fayyaz MinhasTissue Image Analytics Centre, Department of Computer Science, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9129-1189
Shan E Ahmed RazaTissue Image Analytics Centre, Department of Computer Science, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1097-1738
Kris D McCombePrecision Medicine Centre, Patrick G. Johnston Centre for Cancer Research, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK.
Stephanie G CraigPrecision Medicine Centre, Patrick G. Johnston Centre for Cancer Research, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK.
Jacqueline JamesPrecision Medicine Centre, Patrick G. Johnston Centre for Cancer Research, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6945-6060
Jill BrooksInstitute of Head and Neck Studies and Education, Institute of Cancer and Genomic Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Paul NankivellInstitute of Head and Neck Studies and Education, Institute of Cancer and Genomic Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4664-6117
Hisham MehannaInstitute of Head and Neck Studies and Education, Institute of Cancer and Genomic Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Syed Ali KhurramSchool of Clinical Dentistry, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0378-9380
Nasir M RajpootTissue Image Analytics Centre, Department of Computer Science, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK. n.m.rajpoot@warwick.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4706-1308

Funding

Cancer Research UK 29674
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Oral epithelial dysplasia (OED) is a premalignant histopathological diagnosis given to lesions of the oral cavity. Its grading suffers from significant inter-/intra-observer variability, and does not reliably predict malignancy progression, potentially leading to suboptimal treatment decisions. To address this, we developed an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm, that assigns an Oral Malignant Transformation (OMT) risk score based on the Haematoxylin and Eosin (H&E) stained whole slide images (WSIs). Our AI pipeline leverages an in-house segmentation model to detect and segment both nuclei and epithelium. Subsequently, a shallow neural network utilises interpretable morphological and spatial features, emulating histological markers, to predict progression. We conducted internal cross-validation on our development cohort (Sheffield; n = 193 cases) and independent validation on two external cohorts (Birmingham and Belfast; n = 89 cases). On external validation, the proposed OMTscore achieved an AUROC = 0.75 (Recall = 0.92) in predicting OED progression, outperforming other grading systems (Binary: AUROC = 0.72, Recall = 0.85). Survival analyses showed the prognostic value of our OMTscore (C-index = 0.60, p = 0.02), compared to WHO (C-index = 0.64, p = 0.003) and binary grades (C-index = 0.65, p < 0.001). Nuclear analyses elucidated the presence of peri-epithelial and intra-epithelial lymphocytes in highly predictive patches of transforming cases (p < 0.001). This is the first study to propose a completely automated, explainable, and externally validated algorithm for predicting OED transformation. Our algorithm shows comparable-to-human-level performance, offering a promising solution to the challenges of grading OED in routine clinical practice.

Identifiers

PMID38942998
PMCPMC11213925

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.