Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38942775›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2024

Prediction model for cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes using machine learning derived and validated in two independent Korean cohorts.

Hyunji Sang, Hojae Lee, Myeongcheol Lee, Jaeyu Park, Sunyoung Kim, Ho Geol Woo, Masoud Rahmati, Ai Koyanagi, Lee Smith, Sihoon Lee and 5 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Hyunji Sang *Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Kyung Hee University Medical Center, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, 23 Kyungheedae-ro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul, 02447, South Korea.
Hojae Lee *Center for Digital Health, Medical Science Research Institute, Kyung Hee University Medical Center, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
Myeongcheol LeeCenter for Digital Health, Medical Science Research Institute, Kyung Hee University Medical Center, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
Jaeyu ParkCenter for Digital Health, Medical Science Research Institute, Kyung Hee University Medical Center, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
Sunyoung KimDepartment of Family Medicine, Kyung Hee University Medical Center, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
Ho Geol WooDepartment of Neurology, Kyung Hee University Medical Center, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
Masoud RahmatiResearch Centre on Health Services and Quality of Life, Aix Marseille University, Marseille, France.
Ai KoyanagiResearch and Development Unit, Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Deu, Barcelona, Spain.
Lee SmithCentre for Health, Performance and Wellbeing, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge, UK.
Sihoon LeeDepartment of Internal Medicine, Gachon University College of Medicine, Incheon, South Korea.
You-Cheol HwangDivision of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Kyung Hee University Hospital at Gangdong and Kyung Hee University School of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
Tae Sun ParkDivision of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Research Institute of Clinical Medicine of Jeonbuk National University and Jeonbuk National University Hospital, Jeonju, South Korea.
Hyunjung LimDepartment of Medical Nutrition, Graduate School of East-West Medical Science, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, South Korea.
Dong Keon YonCenter for Digital Health, Medical Science Research Institute, Kyung Hee University Medical Center, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea. yonkkang@gmail.com.
Sang Youl RheeDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Kyung Hee University Medical Center, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, 23 Kyungheedae-ro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul, 02447, South Korea. rheesy@khu.ac.kr.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model tailored to the Korean population with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) to provide a superior method for predicting the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD), a major chronic complication in these patients. We used data from two cohorts, namely the discovery (one hospital; n = 12,809) and validation (two hospitals; n = 2019) cohorts, recruited between 2008 and 2022. The outcome of interest was the presence or absence of CVD at 3 years. We selected various ML-based models with hyperparameter tuning in the discovery cohort and performed area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis in the validation cohort. CVD was observed in 1238 (10.2%) patients in the discovery cohort. The random forest (RF) model exhibited the best overall performance among the models, with an AUROC of 0.830 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.818-0.842) in the discovery dataset and 0.722 (95% CI 0.660-0.783) in the validation dataset. Creatinine and glycated hemoglobin levels were the most influential factors in the RF model. This study introduces a pioneering ML-based model for predicting CVD in Korean patients with T2DM, outperforming existing prediction tools and providing a groundbreaking approach for early personalized preventive medicine.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2Machine LearningAgedCohort StudiesFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRepublic of KoreaRisk FactorsROC CurveCardiovascular diseasesDiabetes mellitusMachine learningPredictionRandom forest model

Identifiers

PMID38942775
PMCPMC11213851

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.