Provincial inequality of China's progress towards universal health coverage: An empirical analysis in 2016-21.

Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) is a crucial target shared by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). As UHC levels are influenced by factors such as the regional economy and resource allocation, subnational evidence in China is urgently needed. This study aimed to monitor provincial progress from 2016 to 2021, thereby informing the development of region-specific strategies. Methods: Based on the UHC monitoring framework proposed by the World Health Organization, a UHC index was constructed comprising the service coverage dimension (16 indicators) and financial protection dimension (four indicators). In this observational study, routinely collected health data from 25 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in mainland China were obtained from statistical yearbooks, relevant literature, and nationally representative surveys. The indices were calculated using geometric means. Socioeconomic inequalities among provinces were quantified using the slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII). Results: From 2016 to 2021, China made laudable progress towards achieving UHC, with the index rising from 56.94 in 2016 to 63.03 in 2021. Most provinces demonstrated better performance in service coverage. Western provinces generally presented faster rates of progress, which were attributed to more substantial increases in financial protection. Despite significant disparities, with the UHC index ranging from 77.94 in Shanghai to 54.61 in Fujian in 2021, the overall equity of UHC has improved across the 25 provinces. SII decreased from 17.78 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 11.64, 23.93) to 12.25 (95% CI = 5.86, 18.63) and RII from 1.38 (95% CI = 1.29, 1.46) to 1.22 (95% CI = 1.16, 1.29). However, the non-communicable disease (NCD) domain experienced a drop in both index score and equity, underscoring the need for prioritised attention. Conclusions: In the context of SDGs and the 'Healthy China 2030' initiative, China has made commendable progress towards UHC, and inter-provincial equity has improved. However, substantial differences persisted. The equitable realisation of UHC necessitates prioritising the enhancement of service capacity and financial protection in less developed regions, particularly by addressing shortages in the general practitioner workforce and mitigating catastrophic payments. Developed regions should focus on preventing NCDs through effective interventions targeting key risk factors. This study provides insights for other countries to adopt comprehensive monitoring frameworks, identify subnational disparities, and introduce targeted policy initiatives.