Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38937863›Full record

ArticleESC heart failure2024

Global trends in heart failure from 1990 to 2019: An age-period-cohort analysis from the Global Burden of Disease study.

Zeye Liu, Ziping Li, Xinqing Li, Yiming Yan, Jinyang Liu, Jing Wang, Jingyuan Guan, Anran Xin, Fengwen Zhang, Wenbin Ouyang and 7 more

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in ESC heart failure, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
29citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

29 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. Article
  9. Burden and etiology of heart failure in mainland China from 1990 to 2021: Results from the GBD 2021 study.International journal of cardiology. Cardiovascular risk and prevention · 2025
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. ITACARE-P/SIGG/SIGOT/SICGE position paper on elderly cardiac patient referral to cardiac rehabilitation.International journal of cardiology. Cardiovascular risk and prevention · 2025
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors.

Zeye LiuDepartment of Cardiac Surgery, Peking University People's Hospital, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Ziping LiDepartment of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Xinqing LiNational Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China.
Yiming YanDepartment of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Jinyang LiuDepartment of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Jing WangNational Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China.
Jingyuan GuanNational Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China.
Anran XinNational Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China.
Fengwen ZhangDepartment of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Wenbin OuyangDepartment of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Shouzheng WangDepartment of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Ruibing XiaDepartment of Medicine, University Hospital Munich, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, Munich, Germany.
Yakun LiLaboratory of Experimental Intensive Care and Anesthesiology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Yi ShiDepartment of Cardiac Surgery, Peking University People's Hospital, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Jing XieDepartment of Pharmacy, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, China.
Yuhui ZhangNational Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China.
Xiangbin PanDepartment of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.

Funding

CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences 2021-I2M-1-065Development Project of National Major Scientific Research Instrument 82327801National High Level Hospital Clinical Research Funding 2022-GSP-GG-18National High Level Hospital Clinical Research Funding 2023-GSP-QN-28National High Level Hospital Clinical Research Funding 2023-GSP-RC-04National High Level Hospital Clinical Research Funding 2023-GSP-RC-17National Key R&D Program of China 2022YFC2503400National Key R&D Program of China 2023YFC2412705Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen SZSM202011013
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsThis study aimed to analyse the global prevalence and disability trends of heart failure (HF) from 1990 to 2019, considering both sexes and country-specific economic strata.

methodsThis study conducted a secondary analysis employing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. The analysis is stratified by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels. Through age-period-cohort and Joinpoint regression analyses, we investigated the temporal trends in HF prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) during this period.

resultsBetween 1990 and 2019, the global prevalence of HF surged by 106.3% (95% uncertainty interval: 99.3% to 114.3%), reaching 56.2 million cases in 2019. While all-age prevalence and YLDs increased over the 30 year span, age-standardized rates decreased by 2019. Countries with higher SDI experienced a more pronounced percentage decrease compared with those with lower SDI. Longitudinal analysis revealed an overall improvement in both prevalence and YLDs for HF, albeit with notable disparities between SDI quintiles and sexes. Ischaemic heart disease and hypertensive heart disease emerged as the most rapidly increasing and primarily contributing causes of HF, albeit with variations observed across different countries. The average annual percentage change for prevalence and YLDs over the period was -0.26% and -0.25%, respectively.

conclusionsThis study offers valuable insights into the global burden of HF, considering factors such as population aging, regional disparities, sex differences and aetiological variations. The findings hold significant implications for healthcare planning and resource allocation. Continued assessment of these trends and innovative strategies for HF prevention and management are crucial for addressing this pressing global health concern.

Indexed as

Global Burden of DiseaseGlobal HealthHeart FailureAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge DistributionFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceRetrospective Studiesage‐period‐cohort analysisGlobal Burden of Disease studyheart failureprevalenceyears lived with disability

Identifiers

PMID38937863
PMCPMC11424301

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.