Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38937306›Full record

ArticleGastric cancer : official journal of the International Gastric Cancer Association and the Japanese Gastric Cancer Association2024

A mathematical simulation model to determine the optimal endoscopic screening strategy for detection of H. pylori-naïve gastric neoplasms.

Fumiaki Ishibashi, Kosuke Okusa, Yoshitaka Tokai, Toshiaki Hirasawa, Tomohiro Kawakami, Kentaro Mochida, Yuka Yanai, Chizu Yokoi, Yuko Hayashi, Shun-Ichiro Ozawa and 8 more

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Article in Gastric cancer : official journal of the International Gastric Cancer Association and the Japanese Gastric Cancer Association, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

18 authors.

Fumiaki IshibashiDepartment of Gastroenterology, International University of Health and Welfare Ichikawa Hospital, 6-1-14, Konodai, Ichikawa-shi, Chiba, 272-0827, Japan. ishibashi-gast@iuhw.ac.jp.ORCID 0000-0003-4065-7958
Kosuke OkusaFaculty of Science and Engineering, Department of Data Science for Business Innovation, Chuo University, Tokyo, 112-8551, Japan.
Yoshitaka TokaiDepartment of Gastroenterology, Cancer Institute Hospital, Tokyo, 135-8550, Japan.
Toshiaki HirasawaDepartment of Gastroenterology, Cancer Institute Hospital, Tokyo, 135-8550, Japan.
Tomohiro KawakamiKoganei Tsurukame Clinic, Endoscopy Center, Tokyo, 184-0004, Japan.
Kentaro MochidaDepartment of Gastroenterology, International University of Health and Welfare Ichikawa Hospital, 6-1-14, Konodai, Ichikawa-shi, Chiba, 272-0827, Japan.
Yuka YanaiNational Center for Global Health and Medicine, Department of Gastroenterology, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan.
Chizu YokoiNational Center for Global Health and Medicine, Department of Gastroenterology, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan.
Yuko HayashiNational Center for Global Health and Medicine, Department of Medical Examination Center, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan.
Shun-Ichiro OzawaDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Japan Community Health Care Organization Yamanashi Hospital, Yamanashi, 400-0025, Japan.
Koji UraushiharaDepartment of Gastroenterology, Showa General Hospital, Tokyo, 187-8510, Japan.
Yohei MinatoDepartment of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, NTT Medical Center Tokyo, Tokyo, 141-8625, Japan.
Hiroyuki NakanishiDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Musashino Red Cross Hospital, Tokyo, 180-8610, Japan.
Hiroya UeyamaDepartment of Gastroenterology, Juntendo University School of Medicine, Tokyo, 113-8431, Japan.
Mikinori KataokaDepartment of Gastroenterology, International University of Health and Welfare Mita Hospital, Tokyo, 108-8239, Japan.
Yuzo ToyamaDepartment of Gastroenterology, New Tokyo Hospital, Chiba, 270-2232, Japan.
Yuji MizokamiDepartment of Medical Examination Center, New Tokyo Hospital, Chiba, 270-2232, Japan.
Sho SuzukiDepartment of Gastroenterology, International University of Health and Welfare Ichikawa Hospital, 6-1-14, Konodai, Ichikawa-shi, Chiba, 272-0827, Japan.

Funding

Japanese Gastric Cancer Association JGCA-037Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare 24EA0101
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe effectiveness of esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) screening in cohorts with low Helicobacter pylori prevalence is unknown. This study aimed to develop an optimally efficient EGD screening strategy for detecting H. pylori-naïve gastric neoplasms (HpNGNs).

methodsEGD data of 12 institutions from 2016 to 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Age-related HpNGN prevalence, tumor growth rate, missing rate, and detection threshold size were calculated from the databases. Subsequently, using clinical data, a novel mathematical model that simultaneously simulated demographic changes and HpNGN detection was developed. Screening strategies using different starting ages (40/45/50 years) and intervals (2/5/10 years) were also compared. The detection rates of all tumors occurring within the virtual cohort and number-needed-to-test (NNT) were measured as outcomes.

resultsData of 519,368 EGDs and 97 HpNGNs (34 pure signet ring cell carcinomas, 26 gastric adenocarcinomas of the fundic gland type, 30 foveolar gastric adenoma-Raspberry type, and seven undifferentiated-type cancer cases) were analyzed. A virtual cohort with a 70-year time horizon was used to simulate the occurrence, growth, and detection of 346,5836 people. Among the strategies with detection rate > 50%, the screening strategy with a 5-year interval starting at 45 years of age had the lowest NNT. Adopting this strategy, most HpNGNs were detected at < 20 mm in size, and the deep submucosal invasion rate was less than 30%.

conclusionsA mathematical simulation model revealed that screening every 5 years starting at 45 years of age could efficiently assist in identifying HpNGNs at an early stage.

Indexed as

Computer SimulationEarly Detection of CancerEndoscopy, Digestive SystemMass ScreeningStomach NeoplasmsAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge FactorsFemaleGastric MucosaHelicobacter InfectionsHelicobacter pyloriHumansJapanMaleEarly detection of cancerEndoscopyHelicobacter pyloriMass screeningStomach neoplasms

Identifiers

PMID38937306

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.