ArticleJournal of market access & health policy2024
Future Possible Changes in Medically Underserved Areas in Japan: A Geographic Information System-Based Simulation Study.
Article in Journal of market access & health policy, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Geographic access to radiotherapy facilities in Japan.Journal of radiation research · 2026Article
- A questionnaire survey of healthcare access and dietary habits in a rural Japanese community: implications for potential community pharmacy roles.Journal of pharmaceutical health care and sciences · 2025Article
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Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundA decrease in populations could affect healthcare access and systems, particularly in medically underserved areas (MUAs) where depopulation is becoming more prevalent. This study aimed to simulate the future population and land areas of MUAs in Japan.
methodsThis study covered 380,948 1 km meshes, 87,942 clinics, and 8354 hospitals throughout Japan as of 2020. The areas outside a 4 km radius of medical institutions were considered as MUAs, based on the measure of areas in the current Japanese Medical Care Act. Based on the population estimate for a 1 km mesh, the population of mesh numbers of MUAs was predicted for every 10 years from 2020 to 2050 using geographic information system analysis. If the population within a 4 km radius from a medical institution fell below 1000, the institution was operationally assumed to be closed.
resultsThe number of MUAs was predicted to decrease from 964,310 (0.77% of the total Japanese population) in 2020 to 763,410 (0.75%) by 2050. By 2050, 48,105 meshes (13% of the total meshes in Japan) were predicted to be new MUAs, indicating a 31% increase in MUAs from 2020 to 2050. By 2050, 1601 medical institutions were tentatively estimated to be in close proximity.
conclusionsIn Japan, the population of MUAs will decrease, while the land area of MUAs will increase. Such changes may reform rural healthcare policy and systems.
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Registered trials
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