Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38925788›Full record

ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2024

Trends in cardiovascular disease incidence among 22 million people in the UK over 20 years: population based study.

Nathalie Conrad, Geert Molenberghs, Geert Verbeke, Francesco Zaccardi, Claire Lawson, Jocelyn M Friday, Huimin Su, Pardeep S Jhund, Naveed Sattar, Kazem Rahimi and 4 more

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 72 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
72citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

72 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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12 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Nathalie ConradSchool of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Health, British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK nathalie.conrad@kuleuven.be.ORCID 0000-0001-5027-5481
Geert MolenberghsInteruniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics (I-BioStat), Hasselt University and KU Leuven, Belgium.
Geert VerbekeInteruniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics (I-BioStat), Hasselt University and KU Leuven, Belgium.
Francesco ZaccardiLeicester Real World Evidence Unit, Diabetes Research Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
Claire LawsonLeicester Real World Evidence Unit, Diabetes Research Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
Jocelyn M FridaySchool of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Health, British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Huimin SuDepartment of Cardiovascular Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
Pardeep S JhundSchool of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Health, British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Naveed SattarCollege of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Kazem RahimiDeep Medicine, Nuffield Department of Women's and Reproductive Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
John G ClelandSchool of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Health, British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Kamlesh KhuntiLeicester Real World Evidence Unit, Diabetes Research Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
Werner BudtsSchool of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Health, British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
John J V McMurraySchool of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Health, British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo investigate the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) overall and by age, sex, and socioeconomic status, and its variation over time, in the UK during 2000-19.

designPopulation based study.

settingUK.

participants1 650 052 individuals registered with a general practice contributing to Clinical Practice Research Datalink and newly diagnosed with at least one CVD from 1 January 2000 to 30 June 2019.

main outcome measuresThe primary outcome was incident diagnosis of CVD, comprising acute coronary syndrome, aortic aneurysm, aortic stenosis, atrial fibrillation or flutter, chronic ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, peripheral artery disease, second or third degree heart block, stroke (ischaemic, haemorrhagic, and unspecified), and venous thromboembolism (deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism). Disease incidence rates were calculated individually and as a composite outcome of all 10 CVDs combined and were standardised for age and sex using the 2013 European standard population. Negative binomial regression models investigated temporal trends and variation by age, sex, and socioeconomic status.

resultsThe mean age of the population was 70.5 years and 47.6% (n=784 904) were women. The age and sex standardised incidence of all 10 prespecified CVDs declined by 19% during 2000-19 (incidence rate ratio 2017-19

conclusionsDespite substantial improvements in the prevention of atherosclerotic diseases in the UK, the overall burden of CVDs remained high during 2000-19. For CVDs to decrease further, future prevention strategies might need to consider a broader spectrum of conditions, including arrhythmias, valve diseases, and thromboembolism, and examine the specific needs of younger age groups and socioeconomically deprived populations.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge DistributionFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedSex DistributionSocial ClassUnited KingdomYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID38925788
PMCPMC11203392

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.