Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38925732›Full record

ReviewThe lancet. HIV2024

Is HIV epidemic control by 2030 realistic?

Chris Beyrer, Georgia D Tomaras, Huub C Gelderblom, Glenda E Gray, Holly E Janes, Linda-Gail Bekker, Gregorio Millett, Giuseppe Pantaleo, Susan Buchbinder, Lawrence Corey

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in The lancet. HIV, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
  2. Trial
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. The HIV/AIDS response as we knew it is over: Where do we go from here?Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2026
    Review
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. The HIV/AIDS pandemic: where are we now?AIDS (London, England) · 2025
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. The potential of broadly neutralizing antibodies for HIV prevention.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2024
    Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Chris BeyrerDuke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA; Duke Center for AIDS Research, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA. Electronic address: chris.beyrer@duke.edu.
Georgia D TomarasDuke Center for AIDS Research, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA; Department of Surgery and Department of Integrative Immunobiology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
Huub C GelderblomVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Glenda E GraySouth African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa.
Holly E JanesVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Linda-Gail BekkerDesmond Tutu HIV Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Gregorio MillettamfAR, Washington, DC, USA.
Giuseppe PantaleoLaboratory of AIDS Immunopathogenesis at the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Susan BuchbinderSan Francisco Department of Health, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Lawrence CoreyVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.

Funding

LOC: HIV Vaccine Trials NetworkUM1AI068614 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Dan H. Barouch, Lawrence Corey · 2011 to 2026
$1175.6M
LC: HIV Vaccine Trials NetworkUM1AI068618 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Margaret Juliana McElrath · 2011 to 2026
$483.6M
SDMC: HIV Vaccine Trials NetworkUM1AI068635 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Peter B. Gilbert, Yunda Huang · 2011 to 2026
$385.9M
Social and Behavioral Sciences CoreP30AI064518 · NIAID · DUKE UNIVERSITY · PI Nwora Lance Okeke · 2005 to 2026
$50.5M
San Francisco Vaccine and Prevention UnitUM1AI069496 · NIAID · PUBLIC HEALTH FOUNDATION ENTERPRISES · PI Susan Buchbinder, Diane V Havlir · 2012 to 2026
$30.5M
Johns Hopkins HIV Epidemiology and Prevention Sciences Training ProgramT32AI102623 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI Shruti H Mehta · 2013 to 2026
$5.3M
NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI064518NIAID NIH HHS T32 AI102623NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI068614NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI068618NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI068635NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI069496
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Rates of new HIV acquisition remain unacceptably high in most populations in low-income, middle-income, and high-income settings despite advances in treatment and prevention strategies. Although biomedical advances in primary prevention of new infections exist, systematic scale-up of these interventions has not occurred at the pace required to end AIDS by 2030. Low population coverage, adherence to oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in settings with high rates of HIV acquisition, and the fact that a significant proportion of new HIV infections occurs in populations not identified as high risk and are hence not targeted for prevention approaches impedes current prevention strategies. Although long-acting injectables and monoclonal antibodies are promising approaches to help reduce incidence, high cost and the need for high coverage rates mean that a vaccine or vaccine-like intervention still remains the most likely scenario to produce a population-level impact on HIV incidence, especially in countries with generalised epidemics. Current global efforts are not sufficient to meet 2030 HIV epidemic goals; acknowledgment of this issue is required to ensure persistent advocacy for population-based control of the ongoing HIV pandemic.

Indexed as

EpidemicsHIV InfectionsGlobal HealthHumansIncidencePre-Exposure Prophylaxis

Identifiers

PMID38925732
PMCPMC11416730

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.