ArticleESC heart failure2024
Development and validation of a prediction model for heart failure in patients with heart valvular regurgitation.
Article in ESC heart failure, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Development and validation of a prediction model for heart failure in patients with heart valvular regurgitation.ESC heart failure · 2024Article
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8 authors.
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Abstract
aimsPatients with heart valvular regurgitation is increasing; early screening of potential patients developing heart failure (HF) is crucial.
methodsFrom 1 November 2019 to 31 October 2023, a total of 509 patients with heart valvular regurgitation hospitalized in the Department of Cardiovascular Disease of the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou University of Traditional Medicine were enrolled. Three hundred fifty-six cases were selected as the training set for modelling, and 153 cases were selected as the validation set for the internal validation of the model.
resultsA predictive model of heart failure with the following nine risk factors was developed: atrial fibrillation (AF), pulmonary infection (PI), coronary artery disease (CAD), creatinine (CREA), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), d-dimer (DDi), left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (LVEDd), mitral regurgitation (MR) and aortic regurgitation (AR). The model was evaluated by the C-index [the training set: area under curve (AUC) 0.937, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.911-0.963; the validation set: AUC 0.928, 95% CI 0.890-0.967]. Hosmer-Lemeshow test (the training set: χ
conclusionsThe occurrence of heart failure in patients with valvular regurgitation has a significant correlation with AF, PI, CAD, CREA, LDL-C, DDi, LVEDd, MR and AR. Based on these risk factors, a prediction model for heart failure was developed and validated, which showed good differentiation and utility, high accuracy and stability, providing a method for predicting heart failure.
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