Triple-negative breast cancer survival prediction: population-based research using the SEER database and an external validation cohort.

Introduction: Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is linked to a poorer outlook, heightened aggressiveness relative to other breast cancer variants, and limited treatment choices. The absence of conventional treatment methods makes TNBC patients susceptible to metastasis. The objective of this research was to assess the clinical and pathological traits of TNBC patients, predict the influence of risk elements on their outlook, and create a prediction model to assist doctors in treating TNBC patients and enhancing their prognosis. Methods: We included 23,394 individuals with complete baseline clinical data and survival information who were diagnosed with primary TNBC between 2010 and 2015 based on the SEER database. External validation utilised a group from The Affiliated Lihuili Hospital of Ningbo University. Independent risk factors linked to TNBC prognosis were identified through univariate, multivariate, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression methods. These characteristics were chosen as parameters to develop 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) nomogram models. Model accuracy was assessed using calibration curves, consistency indices (C-indices), receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs), and decision curve analyses (DCAs). Finally, TNBC patients were divided into groups of high, medium, and low risk, employing the nomogram model for conducting a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Results: In the training cohort, variables such as age at diagnosis, marital status, grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, radiation, and chemotherapy were linked to OS and BCSS. For the nomogram, the C-indices stood at 0.762, 0.747, and 0.764 in forecasting OS across the training, internal validation, and external validation groups, respectively. Additionally, the C-index values for the training, internal validation, and external validation groups in BCSS prediction stood at 0.793, 0.755, and 0.811, in that order. The findings revealed that the calibration of our nomogram model was successful, and the time-variant ROC curves highlighted its effectiveness in clinical settings. Ultimately, the clinical DCA showcased the prospective clinical advantages of the suggested model. Furthermore, the online version was simple to use, and nomogram classification may enhance the differentiation of TNBC prognosis and distinguish risk groups more accurately. Conclusion: These nomograms are precise tools for assessing risk in patients with TNBC and forecasting survival. They can help doctors identify prognostic markers and create more effective treatment plans for patients with TNBC, providing more accurate assessments of their 3- and 5-year OS and BCSS.