Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38918505›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2024

Severity influences categorical likelihood communications: A case study with Southeast Asian weather forecasters.

Alice Liefgreen, Sarah C Jenkins, Sazali Osman, Lorenzo A Moron, Maria Cecilia A Monteverde, Esperanza O Cayanan, Lam Hoang, Diep Quang Tran, Huong Ngo, Agie Wandala Putra and 4 more

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Article in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Alice Liefgreen *Department of Experimental Psychology, University College London, 26 Bedford Way, London, WCH1 0AP, UK.
Sarah C Jenkins *Department of Experimental Psychology, University College London, 26 Bedford Way, London, WCH1 0AP, UK. s.c.jenkins@leeds.ac.uk.
Sazali OsmanDepartment of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia, National Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre, 50480, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Lorenzo A MoronDepartment of Science and Technology, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), PAGASA Science Garden Complex, BIR Road, Brgy. Central, 1100, Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines.
Maria Cecilia A MonteverdeDepartment of Science and Technology, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), PAGASA Science Garden Complex, BIR Road, Brgy. Central, 1100, Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines.
Esperanza O CayananDepartment of Science and Technology, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), PAGASA Science Garden Complex, BIR Road, Brgy. Central, 1100, Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines.
Lam HoangVietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, 8 Phao Dai Lang Street, Lang Thuong Ward, Dong Da District, Ha Noi City, Vietnam.
Diep Quang TranVietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, 8 Phao Dai Lang Street, Lang Thuong Ward, Dong Da District, Ha Noi City, Vietnam.
Huong NgoVietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, 8 Phao Dai Lang Street, Lang Thuong Ward, Dong Da District, Ha Noi City, Vietnam.
Agie Wandala PutraThe Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics of the Republic of Indonesia (Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), Jl. Angkasa, 2 Kemayoran Jararta Pusat, DKI, Jakarta, 10610, Indonesia.
Riefda NovikaranyThe Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics of the Republic of Indonesia (Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), Jl. Angkasa, 2 Kemayoran Jararta Pusat, DKI, Jakarta, 10610, Indonesia.
Sefri AyulianaThe Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics of the Republic of Indonesia (Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), Jl. Angkasa, 2 Kemayoran Jararta Pusat, DKI, Jakarta, 10610, Indonesia.
Rebecca BeckettMet Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK.
Adam J L HarrisDepartment of Experimental Psychology, University College London, 26 Bedford Way, London, WCH1 0AP, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Risk assessments are common in multiple domains, from finance to medicine. They require evaluating an event's potential severity and likelihood. We investigate the possible dependence of likelihood and severity within the domain of impact-based weather forecasting (IBF), following predictions derived from considering asymmetric loss functions. In a collaboration between UK psychologists and partners from four meteorological organisations in Southeast Asia, we conducted two studies (N = 363) eliciting weather warnings from forecasters. Forecasters provided warnings denoting higher likelihoods for high severity impacts than low severity impacts, despite these impacts being described as having the same explicit numerical likelihood of occurrence. This 'Severity effect' is pervasive, and we find it can have a continued influence even for an updated forecast. It is additionally observed when translating warnings made on a risk matrix to numerical probabilities.

Indexed as

Asymmetric loss functionsImpact-based warningsNatural hazardsRisk communicationRisk perceptionSeverity effect

Identifiers

PMID38918505
PMCPMC11199697

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LicenceCC BY
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.