Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38908374›Full record

ArticleAmerican journal of human genetics2024

Evaluation of polygenic scoring methods in five biobanks shows larger variation between biobanks than methods and finds benefits of ensemble learning.

Remo Monti, Lisa Eick, Georgi Hudjashov, Kristi Läll, Stavroula Kanoni, Brooke N Wolford, Benjamin Wingfield, Oliver Pain, Sophie Wharrie, Bradley Jermy and 14 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in American journal of human genetics, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
29citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

29 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
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  7. Review
  8. An introduction to polygenic scores - methodological basics and recent advances.Medizinische Genetik : Mitteilungsblatt des Berufsverbandes Medizinische Genetik e.V · 2026
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Observational
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  14. Polygenic risk score translation across diverse populations.Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine · 2026
    Review
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  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Review
  19. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

24 authors.

Remo MontiHasso Plattner Institute, University of Potsdam, Digital Engineering Faculty, Potsdam, Germany; Max-Delbrück-Center for Molecular Medicine in the Helmholtz Association, Berlin Institute for Medical Systems Biology, Berlin, Germany.
Lisa EickInstitute for Molecular Medicine Finland, Helsinki Institute of Life Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Georgi HudjashovEstonian Genome Centre, Institute of Genomics, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia.
Kristi LällEstonian Genome Centre, Institute of Genomics, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia.
Stavroula KanoniWilliam Harvey Research Institute, Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Brooke N WolfordK.G. Jebsen Center for Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.
Benjamin WingfieldEuropean Molecular Biology Laboratory, European Bioinformatics Institute, Wellcome Genome Campus, Hinxton, Cambridge, UK.
Oliver PainMaurice Wohl Clinical Neuroscience Institute, Department of Basic and Clinical Neuroscience; Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience; King's College London, London, UK.
Sophie WharrieAalto University, Department of Computer Science, Espoo, Finland.
Bradley JermyInstitute for Molecular Medicine Finland, Helsinki Institute of Life Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Aoife McMahonEuropean Molecular Biology Laboratory, European Bioinformatics Institute, Wellcome Genome Campus, Hinxton, Cambridge, UK.
Tuomo HartonenInstitute for Molecular Medicine Finland, Helsinki Institute of Life Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Henrike HeyneHasso Plattner Institute, University of Potsdam, Digital Engineering Faculty, Potsdam, Germany.
Nina MarsInstitute for Molecular Medicine Finland, Helsinki Institute of Life Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Analytic and Translational Genetics Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Stanley Center for Psychiatric Research and Program in Medical and Population Genetics, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Samuel LambertLevanger Hospital, Nord-Trøndelag Hospital Trust, Levanger, Norway; Cambridge Baker Systems Genomics Initiative, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; British Heart Foundation Cambridge Centre of Research Excellence, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Genes and Health Research Team
Kristian HveemK.G. Jebsen Center for Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway; Levanger Hospital, Nord-Trøndelag Hospital Trust, Levanger, Norway.
Michael InouyeCambridge Baker Systems Genomics Initiative, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; Cambridge Baker Systems Genomics Initiative, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; British Heart Foundation Cambridge Centre of Research Excellence, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; Health Data Research UK Cambridge, Wellcome Genome Campus and University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
David A van HeelBlizard Institute, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Reedik MägiEstonian Genome Centre, Institute of Genomics, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia.
Pekka MarttinenAalto University, Department of Computer Science, Espoo, Finland.
Samuli RipattiInstitute for Molecular Medicine Finland, Helsinki Institute of Life Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Andrea GannaInstitute for Molecular Medicine Finland, Helsinki Institute of Life Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Massachusetts General Hospital and Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Christoph LippertHasso Plattner Institute, University of Potsdam, Digital Engineering Faculty, Potsdam, Germany; Windreich Department of Artificial Intelligence and Human Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA; Hasso Plattner Institute for Digital Health at Mount Sinai, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA; Department of Diagnostic, Molecular, and Interventional Radiology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA. Electronic address: christoph.lippert@hpi.de.

Funding

Wellcome Trust 210561/Z/18/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Methods of estimating polygenic scores (PGSs) from genome-wide association studies are increasingly utilized. However, independent method evaluation is lacking, and method comparisons are often limited. Here, we evaluate polygenic scores derived via seven methods in five biobank studies (totaling about 1.2 million participants) across 16 diseases and quantitative traits, building on a reference-standardized framework. We conducted meta-analyses to quantify the effects of method choice, hyperparameter tuning, method ensembling, and the target biobank on PGS performance. We found that no single method consistently outperformed all others. PGS effect sizes were more variable between biobanks than between methods within biobanks when methods were well tuned. Differences between methods were largest for the two investigated autoimmune diseases, seropositive rheumatoid arthritis and type 1 diabetes. For most methods, cross-validation was more reliable for tuning hyperparameters than automatic tuning (without the use of target data). For a given target phenotype, elastic net models combining PGS across methods (ensemble PGS) tuned in the UK Biobank provided consistent, high, and cross-biobank transferable performance, increasing PGS effect sizes (β coefficients) by a median of 5.0% relative to LDpred2 and MegaPRS (the two best-performing single methods when tuned with cross-validation). Our interactively browsable online-results and open-source workflow prspipe provide a rich resource and reference for the analysis of polygenic scoring methods across biobanks.

Indexed as

Biological Specimen BanksGenome-Wide Association StudyMultifactorial InheritanceDiabetes Mellitus, Type 1HumansMachine LearningPhenotypePolymorphism, Single Nucleotideautoimmune diseasesbiobank studiescross-biobank analysisensemble learninggenetic riskgenetic variabilitygenome-wide association studiesGWASmethod evaluationPGSphenotype predictionpolygenic scores

Identifiers

PMID38908374
PMCPMC11267524

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.