Quantitative evaluation of the time-course and efficacy of targeted agents for ulcerative colitis.

Background: Targeted agents are widely utilized in the treatment of ulcerative colitis (UC). Hence, a comprehensive understanding of comparative drug efficacy in UC is of great importance for drug development and clinical practice. Our objective was the quantitative evaluation of the comparative efficacy of targeted agents for UC. Methods: Three mathematical models were developed based on data from randomized controlled trials in patients with moderate-to-severe UC to describe the time-course and dose-response of efficacy defined as clinical remission, clinical response, and endoscopic improvement, as well as the placebo effect. The covariate effects were further evaluated. Model simulation was performed in a hypothetical population to compare the efficacies across different drugs. Results: The analysis dataset was composed of data from 35 trials of 12 drugs in UC. Time-response relationships were evaluated that indicated a gradual onset of drug efficacy in adalimumab, ozanimod, and Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors. The dose-response relationships were estimated for each drug respectively. Patient age, disease duration, baseline weight, prior tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitor exposure, and current treatment with corticosteroid showed an impact on efficacy, suggesting that younger patients with shorter UC duration without prior anti-TNF treatment and current corticosteroids therapy tend to display greater treatment effects. Conclusion: This study developed three longitudinal models for UC to quantitatively describe the efficacy of targeted agents, as well as the influencing factors of efficacy. Infliximab and upadacitinib were determined to be the most effective biological and small targeted molecules, respectively. These findings may provide valuable implications for guiding future decision-making in clinical practice and drug development for UC.