ArticleJournal of epidemiology and global health2024
Assessing Excess Mortality of Baby Boomers from the COVID-19 Pandemic: Taiwan Omicron-naïve Cohort.
Article in Journal of epidemiology and global health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundAsia's elderly Baby Boomer demographic (born between 1946 and 1964) faced a huge problem during the COVID-19 pandemic due to increased all-cause mortality. We aimed to provide a unique Taiwan situation regarding the impact of Baby Boomers on excess mortalities from all causes relative to non-Baby Boomers throughout distinct times of SARS-CoV-2 mutations during the COVID-19 pandemic.
methodsWe used the Poisson time series design with a Bayesian directed acyclic graphic approach to build the background mortality prior to the COVID-19 pandemic between 2015 and 2019. It was then used for predicting the expected all-cause deaths compared to the reported figures during the COVID-19 pandemic period based on Taiwan residents, an Omicron-naïve cohort.
resultsBaby Boomers experienced a 2% negative excess mortality in 2020 (Wuhan/D614G) and a 4% excess mortality in 2021 (Alpha/Delta) with a rising background mortality trend whereas non-Baby Boomers showed the corresponding figures of 4% negative excess and 1% excess with a stable trend. Baby Boomer and non-Baby Boomer excess mortality soared to 9% (95% CI: 7-10%) and 10% (95% CI: 9-11%), respectively, during the epidemic Omicron period from January to June 2022. Surprisingly, Baby Boomers aged 58-76 experienced the same 9% excess mortality as non-Baby Boomers aged 77 and beyond. Non-COVID-19 deaths were more prevalent among Baby Boomers than non-Baby Boomers (33% vs. 29%).
conclusionBaby Boomers were more likely to die from COVID-19 in early pandemic and had more non-COVID-19 deaths in late pandemic than older non-Baby Boomers demonstrated in Taiwan Omicron-naïve cohort. For this vulnerable population, adequate access to medical care and medical capacity require more consideration.
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