ArticleScientific reports2024
Using an adaptive modeling framework to identify avian influenza spillover risk at the wild-domestic interface.
Article in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Modeling and control of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry using network disease dynamics.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal distribution trends and driving factors of avian influenza in poultry in China.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Economic factors promoting vaccine nationalism in the face of viral evolution.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
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- Article
- Waterfowl Move Less in Heterogeneous and Human-Populated Landscapes, With Implications for Spread of Avian Influenza Viruses.Ecology letters · 2026Article
- A modelling assessment of the impact of control measures on highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission in poultry in Great Britain.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Highly pathogenic avian influenza: a One Health perspective on risks, surveillance, and resilience.ImmunoHorizons · 2025Review
- Avian influenza spillover into poultry: environmental influences and biosecurity protections.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal Overlap of Mallards With Poultry Farms Is Associated With Greater Risk of Avian Influenza Wild Bird Spillover Events.Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Landscape changes elevate the risk of avian influenza virus diversification and emergence in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Rocky Mountain West COVID-19 Modeling: A Descriptive Assessment of Public Health Needs During the COVID-19 Pandemic to Endemic Transition in Summer 2022.Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974) · 2025Article
- Prediction models show differences in highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in Japan and South Korea compared to Europe.Scientific reports · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The wild to domestic bird interface is an important nexus for emergence and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. Although the recent incursion of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b into North America calls for emergency response and planning given the unprecedented scale, readily available data-driven models are lacking. Here, we provide high resolution spatial and temporal transmission risk models for the contiguous United States. Considering virus host ecology, we included weekly species-level wild waterfowl (Anatidae) abundance and endemic low pathogenic avian influenza virus prevalence metrics in combination with number of poultry farms per commodity type and relative biosecurity risks at two spatial scales: 3 km and county-level. Spillover risk varied across the annual cycle of waterfowl migration and some locations exhibited persistent risk throughout the year given higher poultry production. Validation using wild bird introduction events identified by phylogenetic analysis from 2022 to 2023 HPAI poultry outbreaks indicate strong model performance. The modular nature of our approach lends itself to building upon updated datasets under evolving conditions, testing hypothetical scenarios, or customizing results with proprietary data. This research demonstrates an adaptive approach for developing models to inform preparedness and response as novel outbreaks occur, viruses evolve, and additional data become available.
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