Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38901147›Full record

ArticleEBioMedicine2024

Machine learning predicts cerebral vasospasm in patients with subarachnoid haemorrhage.

David A Zarrin, Abhinav Suri, Karen McCarthy, Bilwaj Gaonkar, Bayard R Wilson, Geoffrey P Colby, Robert E Freundlich, Eilon Gabel

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in EBioMedicine, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

David A ZarrinDavid Geffen School of Medicine at University of California, Los Angeles, USA.
Abhinav SuriDavid Geffen School of Medicine at University of California, Los Angeles, USA.
Karen McCarthyDepartment of Anesthesiology, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, USA.
Bilwaj GaonkarDepartment of Neurological Surgery at University of California, Los Angeles Health, USA.
Bayard R WilsonDepartment of Neurological Surgery at University of California, Los Angeles Health, USA.
Geoffrey P ColbyDepartment of Neurological Surgery at University of California, Los Angeles Health, USA.
Robert E FreundlichDepartment of Anesthesiology, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, USA.
Eilon GabelDepartment of Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine at University of California, Los Angeles Health, USA. Electronic address: egabel@mednet.ucla.edu.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCerebral vasospasm (CV) is a feared complication which occurs after 20-40% of subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH). It is standard practice to admit patients with SAH to intensive care for an extended period of resource-intensive monitoring. We used machine learning to predict CV requiring verapamil (CVRV) in the largest and only multi-center study to date.

methodsPatients with SAH admitted to UCLA from 2013 to 2022 and a validation cohort from VUMC from 2018 to 2023 were included. For each patient, 172 unique intensive care unit (ICU) variables were extracted through the primary endpoint, namely first verapamil administration or no verapamil. At each institution, a light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) was trained using five-fold cross validation to predict the primary endpoint at various hospitalization timepoints.

findingsA total of 1750 patients were included from UCLA, 125 receiving verapamil. LightGBM achieved an area under the ROC (AUC) of 0.88 > 1 week in advance and ruled out 8% of non-verapamil patients with zero false negatives. Our models predicted "no CVRV" vs "CVRV within three days" vs "CVRV after three days" with AUCs = 0.88, 0.83, and 0.88, respectively. From VUMC, 1654 patients were included, 75 receiving verapamil. VUMC predictions averaged within 0.01 AUC points of UCLA predictions.

interpretationWe present an accurate and early predictor of CVRV using machine learning with multi-center validation. This represents a significant step towards optimized clinical management and resource allocation in patients with SAH.

fundingRobert E. Freundlich is supported by National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences federal grant UL1TR002243 and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute federal grant K23HL148640; these funders did not play any role in this study. The National Institutes of Health supports Vanderbilt University Medical Center which indirectly supported these research efforts. Neither this study nor any other authors personally received financial support for the research presented in this manuscript. No support from pharmaceutical companies was received.

Indexed as

Machine LearningSubarachnoid HemorrhageVasospasm, IntracranialVerapamilAdultAgedFemaleHumansIntensive Care UnitsMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisROC CurveVerapamilCerebral vasospasmMachine learningPredictionVerapamil

Identifiers

PMID38901147
PMCPMC11245940

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.