ArticleBulletin of mathematical biology2024
Evolutionary Invasion Analysis of Modern Epidemics Highlights the Context-Dependence of Virulence Evolution.
Article in Bulletin of mathematical biology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- A meta-analysis highlights the idiosyncratic nature of tradeoffs in laboratory models of virus evolution.Virus evolution · 2024Article
- On modes of disease transmission and the hidden shape of pandemics: A review ofVirus evolution · 2024Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
Models are often employed to integrate knowledge about epidemics across scales and simulate disease dynamics. While these approaches have played a central role in studying the mechanics underlying epidemics, we lack ways to reliably predict how the relationship between virulence (the harm to hosts caused by an infection) and transmission will evolve in certain virus-host contexts. In this study, we invoke evolutionary invasion analysis-a method used to identify the evolution of uninvadable strategies in dynamical systems-to examine how the virulence-transmission dichotomy can evolve in models of virus infections defined by different natural histories. We reveal peculiar patterns of virulence evolution between epidemics with different disease natural histories (SARS-CoV-2 and hepatitis C virus). We discuss the findings with regards to the public health implications of predicting virus evolution, and in broader theoretical canon involving virulence evolution in host-parasite systems.
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