Nomogram for predicting pathology upstaging in patients with EIN: is sentinel lymph node assessment useful in these patients?

objectiveThe objective of this study was to identify the risk factors for postoperative pathological escalation of endometrial cancer in patients with a pathologic diagnosis of endometrial intraepithelial neoplasia (EIN) before surgery. Some of the clues from the preoperative assessment were used to build a nomogram to predict the likely pathological escalation after surgery, and to explore the feasibility of sentinel lymph node biopsy in these patients with possible pathological escalation.

methodsThis was a retrospective analysis of patients who underwent surgical treatment for EIN diagnosed before surgery between 2018 and 2023 in The Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital of Fudan University. parameters including clinical, radiological and histopathological factors were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression to determine the correlation with pathology upstaging. A nomogram based on the multivariate results was developed to predict the probability of pathology upstaging. A total of 729 patients were included, divided into training set and validation set. 484 patients were used to build the model. This nomogram was subsequently validated using 245 patients.

resultsUpstaging to endometrial carcinoma occurred in 115 (23.8 percent) of 484 women treated between 2018 and 2023 in training set. A lager endometrial thickness (at least 15 mm), menopause, hypertension, HE4, and endometrial blood were significantly associated with upstaging. A nomogram developed using these factors demonstrated good predictive performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)=0.6808; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.6246-0.7369). The nomogram showed similar predictive performance in the validation data set, based on another 245 women (AUC=0.7821; 95% CI=0.7076-0.8567).

conclusionThis study developed a novel nomogram based on the 5 most important factors, which can accurately predict invasive cancer. It is common for women with preoperative diagnosis of EIN to experience pathological progression to endometrial cancer. For some patients with postoperative pathological escalation, we found lymph node metastasis. This nomogram may be useful to help doctor decide whether to perform sentinel lymph node biopsy for surgical staging in these EIN patients. According to the nomogram, simultaneous sentinel lymph node biopsy in patients with high probability of postoperative pathological upgrading can provide better guidance for postoperative adjuvant treatment of endometrial cancer and avoid the occurrence of secondary surgery.