ReviewNature2024
Possible shift in controls of the tropical Pacific surface warming pattern.
Review in Nature, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 25 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed.
- A strong Pacific Walker Circulation during the Little Ice Age.Science advances · 2026Article
- Dietary records in cosmopolitan copepodScience advances · 2026Article
- Rising coastal wave hazards from climate-driven winds and tropical cyclones.National science review · 2026Article
- Coupling of Pacific and Indian Ocean variability disrupted by 19th century volcanism.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Fast expansion and slow contraction of the ITCZ in response to COScience advances · 2026Article
- Tropical origins of the recent trends in Northern Hemisphere wintertime jet streams.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Tropical impacts of the Southern Ocean underestimated by mean-state biases.Science advances · 2026Article
- Heating the land cools the eastern and equatorial Pacific.Science advances · 2026Article
- North Atlantic influence reconciling model-observation discrepancy in the tropical Pacific warming pattern.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Aerosol effective radiative forcing increases Earth's energy imbalance in recent decades.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Tropical precipitation response to anthropogenic climate change in recent decades.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Km-scale coupled simulation and model-observation SST trend discrepancy.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Physical understanding of the extreme global temperature jump in 2023.Communications earth & environment · 2026Article
- Article
- Emergence of the enhanced equatorial Atlantic warming as a fingerprint of global warming.Nature communications · 2025Article
- CMIP6 models cannot capture long-term forced changes in the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature gradient.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Balancing tradition and animal welfare: Adapting an animal-involving festival to climate change in Fukushima, Japan.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025Article
- Towards annual updating of forced warming to date and constrained climate projections.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Combined emergent constraints on future extreme precipitation changes.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Pan-Pacific low-frequency modes of sea level and climate variability.Science advances · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in the tropical Pacific modulate radiative feedbacks to greenhouse gas forcing, the pace of global warming and regional climate impacts. Therefore, elucidating the drivers of the pattern is critically important for reducing uncertainties in future projections. However, the causes of observed changes over recent decades, an enhancement of the zonal SST contrast coupled with a strengthening of the Walker circulation, are still debated. Here we focus on the role of external forcing and review existing mechanisms of the forced response categorized as either an energy perspective that adopts global and hemispheric energy budget constraints or a dynamical perspective that examines the atmosphere-ocean coupled processes. We then discuss their collective and relative contributions to the past and future SST pattern changes and propose a narrative that reconciles them. Although definitive evidence is not yet available, our assessment suggests that the zonal SST contrast has been dominated by strengthening mechanisms in the past, but will shift towards being dominated by weakening mechanisms in the future. Finally, we present opportunities to resolve the model-observations discrepancy regarding the recent trends.
Identifiers
38867130What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.