Probabilistic sunspot predictions with a gated recurrent units-based combined model guided by pinball loss.

Zhesen Cui, Zhe Ding, Jing Xu, Shaotong Zhang, Jinran Wu, Wei Lian

Abstract read

In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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0citing papers in PubMed

–field-weighted citation impact

1 · What the graph read from it

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Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

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0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Zhesen CuiDepartment of Computer Science, Changzhi University, Changzhi, 046011, People's Republic of China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3373-277X

Zhe DingSchool of Computer Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, 4001, Australia. zhe.ding@hdr.qut.edu.au.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5123-0135

Jing XuCollege of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, 225009, People's Republic of China.

Shaotong ZhangFrontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, Key Lab of Submarine Geosciences and Prospecting Techniques, MOE and College of Marine Geosciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, People's Republic of China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2806-2989

Jinran WuInstitute for Positive Psychology and Education, Australian Catholic University, Banyo, QLD, 4014, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2388-3614

Wei LianDepartment of Computer Science, Changzhi University, Changzhi, 046011, People's Republic of China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6917-7451

Funding

the "Chunhui" Program Collaborative Scientific Research Project 202202004

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Sunspots play a crucial role in both weather forecasting and the monitoring of solar storms. In this work, we propose a novel combined model for sunspot prediction using improved gated recurrent units (GRU) guided by pinball loss for probabilistic forecasts. Specifically, we optimize the GRU parameters using the slime mould algorithm and employ a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess to tackle challenges related to sequence prediction, such as self-correlations and non-stationarity. To address prediction uncertainty, we replace the traditional

Identifiers

PMID38867068

DOI10.1038/s41598-024-63878-z

PMCPMC11169250

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.