Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38866916›Full record

ArticleCommunications chemistry2024

The Goldilocks paradigm: comparing classical machine learning, large language models, and few-shot learning for drug discovery applications.

Scott H Snyder, Patricia A Vignaux, Mustafa Kemal Ozalp, Jacob Gerlach, Ana C Puhl, Thomas R Lane, John Corbett, Fabio Urbina, Sean Ekins

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Communications chemistry, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Review
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. From NMR to AI: FusingJournal of chemical information and modeling · 2025
    Article
  7. Article
  8. DDI-CYP: Metabolism ensemble models for drug-drug interaction predictions.Drug metabolism and disposition: the biological fate of chemicals · 2025
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Scott H SnyderCollaborations Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 840 Main Campus Drive, Lab 3510, Raleigh, NC, 27606, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0009-3398-6084
Patricia A VignauxCollaborations Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 840 Main Campus Drive, Lab 3510, Raleigh, NC, 27606, USA.
Mustafa Kemal OzalpCollaborations Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 840 Main Campus Drive, Lab 3510, Raleigh, NC, 27606, USA.
Jacob GerlachCollaborations Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 840 Main Campus Drive, Lab 3510, Raleigh, NC, 27606, USA.
Ana C PuhlCollaborations Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 840 Main Campus Drive, Lab 3510, Raleigh, NC, 27606, USA.
Thomas R LaneCollaborations Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 840 Main Campus Drive, Lab 3510, Raleigh, NC, 27606, USA.
John CorbettCollaborations Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 840 Main Campus Drive, Lab 3510, Raleigh, NC, 27606, USA.
Fabio UrbinaCollaborations Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 840 Main Campus Drive, Lab 3510, Raleigh, NC, 27606, USA. fabio@collaborationspharma.com.
Sean EkinsCollaborations Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 840 Main Campus Drive, Lab 3510, Raleigh, NC, 27606, USA. sean@collaborationspharma.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5691-5790

Funding

Centralized assay datasets for modelling support of small drug discovery organizationsR44GM122196 · NIGMS · COLLABORATIONS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. · PI EKINS, SEAN · 2018 to 2022
$3.3M
MegaTox for analyzing and visualizing data across different screening systemsR44ES031038 · NIEHS · COLLABORATIONS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. · PI EKINS, SEAN · 2022 to 2023
$1.7M
MegaTox for analyzing and visualizing data across different screening systemsR43ES031038 · NIEHS · COLLABORATIONS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. · PI EKINS, SEAN · 2019 to 2020
$349k
MegaPredict for predicting natural product uses and their drug interactionsR43AT010585 · NCCIH · COLLABORATIONS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. · PI EKINS, SEAN · 2019 to 2020
$225k
NCCIH NIH HHS R43 AT010585NIEHS NIH HHS R43 ES031038NIEHS NIH HHS R44 ES031038NIGMS NIH HHS R44 GM122196U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | NIH | National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) 1R43ES031038-01U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | NIH | National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS) R44GM122196-02A1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Recent advances in machine learning (ML) have led to newer model architectures including transformers (large language models, LLMs) showing state of the art results in text generation and image analysis as well as few-shot learning (FSLC) models which offer predictive power with extremely small datasets. These new architectures may offer promise, yet the 'no-free lunch' theorem suggests that no single model algorithm can outperform at all possible tasks. Here, we explore the capabilities of classical (SVR), FSLC, and transformer models (MolBART) over a range of dataset tasks and show a 'goldilocks zone' for each model type, in which dataset size and feature distribution (i.e. dataset "diversity") determines the optimal algorithm strategy. When datasets are small ( < 50 molecules), FSLC tend to outperform both classical ML and transformers. When datasets are small-to-medium sized (50-240 molecules) and diverse, transformers outperform both classical models and few-shot learning. Finally, when datasets are of larger and of sufficient size, classical models then perform the best, suggesting that the optimal model to choose likely depends on the dataset available, its size and diversity. These findings may help to answer the perennial question of which ML algorithm is to be used when faced with a new dataset.

Identifiers

PMID38866916
PMCPMC11169557

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.