ArticleNature communications2024
Variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole post-2100 reverses to a reduction despite persistent global warming.
Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Greenhouse warming exacerbates El Niño-induced Indian monsoon droughts.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Projected changes in climate extremes over Tanzania.Scientific reports · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Previous examination of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) response to greenhouse warming shows increased variability in the eastern pole but decreased variability in the western pole before 2100. The opposing response is due to a shallowing equatorial thermocline promoting sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the east, but a more stable atmosphere decreasing variability in equatorial zonal winds that weakens SST variability in the west. Post-2100, how the IOD may change remains unknown. Here we show that IOD variability weakens post-2100 in majority of models under a long-term high emission scenario to 2300. Post-2100, the atmosphere stability increases further and persistent ocean warming arrests or even reverses the eastern Indian Ocean shallowing thermocline. These changes conspire to drive decreased variability in both poles, reducing amplitude of moderate, strong and early-maturing positive IOD events. Our result highlights a nonlinear response of the IOD to long-term greenhouse warming under the high emission scenario.
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Registered trials
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