ArticlePloS one2024
Predictability: A new distinguishing feature of cancer?
Article in PloS one, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Cancer is a consequence of stochastic (mutations, genetic, and epigenetic instabilities) and deterministic (evolutionary bottlenecks) events. Stochastic events are less amenable to prediction, whereas deterministic events yield more predictable results. The relative contribution of these opposing forces determines cancer predictability, which affects the accuracy of our prognostic predictions and is critical for treatment planning. In this study, we attempted to quantify predictability. The predictability index (PI) was defined as the median overall-survival at any time point divided by the standard error at that time. Using data obtained from the SEER program, we found striking differences in the PI of different tumors. Highly predictable tumors were malignancies of the breast, thyroid, prostate, and testis (5-year PI of 3516, 1920, 1919, and 1805, respectively). Less predictable tumors were colorectal, melanoma, and bladder (5-year PI of 1264, 1197, and 760, respectively). Least predictable were pancreatic cancer and chronic myelogenous leukemia (5-year PI of 129, and 42). PI decreased during follow-up in all examined tumors and showed sex differences in some cases. Thyroid cancer was significantly more predictable in women (5-year PI of 2579 vs. 748, p = 0.00017) and bladder cancer more predictable in men (5-year PI of 723 vs. 385, p = 0.012), Predictability is a potentially new distinguishing feature of malignancy. This study sheds light on prognostic accuracy and provides insight into the relative roles of stochastic and deterministic forces during carcinogenesis.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.