Sustainable land management enhances ecological and economic multifunctionality under ambient and future climate.

The currently dominant types of land management are threatening the multifunctionality of ecosystems, which is vital for human well-being. Here, we present a novel ecological-economic assessment of how multifunctionality of agroecosystems in Central Germany depends on land-use type and climate. Our analysis includes 14 ecosystem variables in a large-scale field experiment with five different land-use types under two different climate scenarios (ambient and future climate). We consider ecological multifunctionality measures using averaging approaches with different weights, reflecting preferences of four relevant stakeholders based on adapted survey data. Additionally, we propose an economic multifunctionality measure based on the aggregate economic value of ecosystem services. Results show that intensive management and future climate decrease ecological multifunctionality for most scenarios in both grassland and cropland. Only under a weighting based on farmers' preferences, intensively-managed grassland shows higher multifunctionality than sustainably-managed grassland. The economic multifunctionality measure is about ~1.7 to 1.9 times higher for sustainable, compared to intensive, management for both grassland and cropland. Soil biodiversity correlates positively with ecological multifunctionality and is expected to be one of its drivers. As the currently prevailing land management provides high multifunctionality for farmers, but not for society at large, we suggest to promote and economically incentivise sustainable land management that enhances both ecological and economic multifunctionality, also under future climatic conditions.