ArticleFrontiers in public health2024
Mathematical modeling of SARS-CoV-2 variant substitutions in European countries: transmission dynamics and epidemiological insights.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Patterns in the dynamics of respiratory viruses after the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational, retrospective study using sentinel surveillance network data, Catalonia, 2022 to 2025.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026Observational
- Identification of Clinical and Genomic Features Associated with SARS-CoV-2 Reinfections.Viruses · 2025Article
- Outpatient pediatric care during the COVID-19 pandemic, Almaty, Kazakhstan 2021-2022.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
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15 authors.
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Abstract
Background: Countries across Europe have faced similar evolutions of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, including the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants. Materials and methods: We used data from GISAID and applied a robust, automated mathematical substitution model to study the dynamics of COVID-19 variants in Europe over a period of more than 2 years, from late 2020 to early 2023. This model identifies variant substitution patterns and distinguishes between residual and dominant behavior. We used weekly sequencing data from 19 European countries to estimate the increase in transmissibility Results: Our model accurately reproduced the observed substitution patterns between the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron major variants. We estimated the daily variant prevalence and calculated Conclusion: The use of mathematical models allows for precise and reliable estimation of daily cases of each variant. By quantifying
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