Functional brain connectivity predictors of prospective substance use initiation and their environmental correlates.

Background: Early substance use initiation (SUI) places youth at substantially higher risk for later substance use disorders. Furthermore, adolescence is a critical period for the maturation of brain networks, the pace and magnitude of which are susceptible to environmental influences and may shape risk for SUI. Methods: We examined whether patterns of functional brain connectivity during rest (rsFC), measured longitudinally in pre-and-early adolescence, can predict future SUI. In an independent sub-sample, we also tested whether these patterns are associated with key environmental factors, specifically neighborhood pollution and socioeconomic dimensions. We utilized data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study Results: Multivariate analysis showed that whole-brain rsFC prior to SUI during 9-10 and 11-12 years of age successfully differentiated the prospective SUI and control groups. This rsFC signature was expressed more at older ages in both groups, suggesting a pattern of accelerated maturation in the SUI group in the years prior to SUI. In an independent sub-sample ( Conclusion: Brain functional connectivity patterns in early adolescence that are linked to accelerated maturation and environmental exposures can predict future SUI in youth.