ArticleAnnals of botany2025
Population decline of the saguaro cactus throughout its distribution is associated with climate change.
Article in Annals of botany, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Linking Climate and Demography to Predict Population Dynamics and Persistence Under Global Change.Ecology letters · 2025Review
- Cryptic CAM photosynthesis in Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia, Y. jaegeriana).The New phytologist · 2025Article
- Establishment patterns of saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea) at the microsite scale help explain saguaro regeneration and distributions in heterogenous, regional habitats.American journal of botany · 2025Article
- Plant Responses to Anomalous Heat and Drought Events in the Sonoran Desert.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Effects of Temperature and Salt Stress onBiology · 2025Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
aimsClimate change is a global phenomenon affecting species, which in arid regions will translate into more frequent and intense periods of drought. The Sonoran Desert is becoming hotter and drier, and many organisms are rapidly changing in abundance and distribution. These population attributes depend directly on the dynamics of the population, which in turn depends on the vital rates of its individuals; yet few studies have documented the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of keystone species such as the saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea). Although saguaros have traits that enable them to withstand present environmental conditions, climate change could make them vulnerable if forced beyond their tolerance limits.
methodsWe evaluated the effect of climate change on 13 saguaro populations spanning most of the species' distribution range. Using field data from 2014 to 2016, we built an integral projection model (IPM) describing the environmentally explicit dynamics of the populations. We used this IPM, along with projections of two climate change scenarios and one no-change scenario, to predict population sizes (N) and growth rates (λ) from 2017 to 2099 and compared these scenarios to demonstrate the effect of climate change on the future of saguaro cactuses. KEY
resultsWe found that all populations will decline, mainly due to future increases in drought, mostly hindering recruitment. However, the decline will be different across populations, since those located near the coast will be affected by harsher drought events than those located further inland.
conclusionsOur study demonstrates that climate change and its associated increase in drought pose a significant threat to the saguaro cactus populations in the Sonoran Desert. Our findings indicate that the recruitment of saguaros, vital for establishing new individuals, is particularly vulnerable to intensifying drought conditions. Importantly, regional climate trends will have different impacts on saguaro populations across their distribution range.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.