ArticleNature communications2024
MSGene: a multistate model using genetic risk and the electronic health record applied to lifetime risk of coronary artery disease.
Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Multidomain risk profiles and documented polyvascular involvement across atherosclerotic vascular beds.American journal of preventive cardiology · 2026Article
- Article
- Polygenic risk scores enhance LDL cholesterol-based risk stratification for coronary artery disease.American journal of preventive cardiology · 2026Article
- Clinical use of polygenic risk scores: current status, barriers and future directions.Nature reviews. Genetics · 2026Review
- Machine learning and SHAP values for predicting coronary artery disease risk in Xinjiang, China.European journal of medical research · 2026Article
- Multimorbidity as a multistage disease process.PNAS nexus · 2026Article
- Proteomic analysis identifies lipoprotein(a)-associated proteins linked to incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Advanced machine learning techniques for coronary artery disease risk prediction in early middle-aged adults.BMC medical genomics · 2025Article
- Evaluating the potential of phenotypic age to enhance cardiovascular risk prediction over chronological age in the UK Biobank.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- AHA PREVENT Equations and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Diverse Health Care Populations.Journal of the American College of Cardiology · 2025Article
- Global Health and Genomics.The Nursing clinics of North America · 2025Review
- An Ounce of Prevention for a Pound of Cure?: Lipid-Lowering Therapy for Premature Coronary Disease.JACC. Advances · 2025Article
- Variability in performance of genetic-enhanced DXA-BMD prediction models across diverse ethnic and geographic populations: A risk prediction study.PLoS medicine · 2024Article
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14 authors.
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Abstract
Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the leading cause of death among adults worldwide. Accurate risk stratification can support optimal lifetime prevention. Current methods lack the ability to incorporate new information throughout the life course or to combine innate genetic risk factors with acquired lifetime risk. We designed a general multistate model (MSGene) to estimate age-specific transitions across 10 cardiometabolic states, dependent on clinical covariates and a CAD polygenic risk score. This model is designed to handle longitudinal data over the lifetime to address this unmet need and support clinical decision-making. We analyze longitudinal data from 480,638 UK Biobank participants and compared predicted lifetime risk with the 30-year Framingham risk score. MSGene improves discrimination (C-index 0.71 vs 0.66), age of high-risk detection (C-index 0.73 vs 0.52), and overall prediction (RMSE 1.1% vs 10.9%), in held-out data. We also use MSGene to refine estimates of lifetime absolute risk reduction from statin initiation. Our findings underscore our multistate model's potential public health value for accurate lifetime CAD risk estimation using clinical factors and increasingly available genetics toward earlier more effective prevention.
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