Exploring the urban arbovirus landscape in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: transmission dynamics and patterns of disease spread.

Background: This study focuses on urban arboviruses, specifically dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV), and Zika (ZIKV), which pose a significant public health challenge in Rio de Janeiro state, Southeast Brazil. In our research, we highlight critical findings on the transmission dynamics of these arboviruses in Rio de Janeiro, identifying distinct patterns of disease spread. Methods: By combining genomic data with case reports from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, we have analysed the phylogenetics, prevalence and spatial distribution of these endemic viruses within the state. Findings: Our results revealed sustained DENV transmission primarily in the northern part of the state, a significant ZIKV epidemic in 2016 affecting all mesoregions, and two major CHIKV outbreaks in 2018 and 2019, predominantly impacting the northern and southern areas. Our analysis suggests an inverse relationship between arboviral case incidence and urban density, with less populous regions experiencing higher transmission rates, potentially attributed to a complex interplay of factors such as the efficacy of vector control measures, environmental conditions, local immunity levels, and human mobility. Furthermore, our investigation unveiled distinct age and gender trends among affected individuals. Notably, dengue cases were predominantly observed in young adults aged 32, while chikungunya cases were more prevalent among individuals over 41. In contrast, cases of ZIKV were concentrated around the 33-year age group. Intriguingly, females accounted for nearly 60% of the cases, suggesting a potential gender-based difference in infection rates. Interpretation: Our findings underscore the complexity of arbovirus transmission and the need for interventions tailored to different geographical mesoregions. Enhanced surveillance and genomic sequencing will be essential for a deeper, more nuanced understanding of regional arbovirus dynamics. Identifying potential blind spots within the state will be pivotal for developing and implementing more effective public health strategies, specifically designed to address the unique challenges posed by these viruses throughout the state. Funding: This study was supported by the National Institutes of Health USA grant U01 AI151698 for the United World Arbovirus Research Network (UWARN) and the CRP-ICGEB RESEARCH GRANT 2020 Project CRP/BRA20-03.