Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38845072›Full record

ArticleJournal of the National Cancer Institute2024

Characteristics of a cost-effective blood test for colorectal cancer screening.

Pedro Nascimento de Lima, Rosita van den Puttelaar, Amy B Knudsen, Anne I Hahn, Karen M Kuntz, Jonathan Ozik, Nicholson Collier, Fernando Alarid-Escudero, Ann G Zauber, John M Inadomi and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  4. A Multiomic Liquid Biopsy for the Earlier Detection of Colorectal Cancer.Cancer prevention research (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Pedro Nascimento de LimaEngineering and Applied Sciences Department, RAND, Arlington, VA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9057-198X
Rosita van den PuttelaarDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-2216-6557
Amy B KnudsenInstitute for Technology Assessment, Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1872-996X
Anne I HahnDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4061-2303
Karen M KuntzDivision of Health Policy and Management, University of Minnesota School of Public Health, Minneapolis, MN, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6335-7590
Jonathan OzikDecision and Infrastructure Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3495-6735
Nicholson CollierDecision and Infrastructure Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2376-4156
Fernando Alarid-EscuderoDepartment of Health Policy, School of Medicine, Stanford Health Policy, Freeman-Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5076-1172
Ann G ZauberDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-1764-5994
John M InadomiDepartment of Internal Medicine, University of Utah School of Medicine, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6776-8661
Iris Lansdorp-VogelaarDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-9438-2753
Carolyn M RutterHutchinson Institute for Cancer Outcomes Research and Biostatistics Program, Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4396-8594

Funding

X-RAY CRYSTALLOGRAPHYP30CA008748 · NCI · SLOAN-KETTERING INSTITUTE FOR CANCER RES · PI SELWYN M VICKERS · 1985 to 2026
$347.4M
Comparative Modeling of Effective Policies for Colorectal Cancer ControlU01CA253913 · NCI · SLOAN-KETTERING INST CAN RESEARCH · PI RUTTER, CAROLYN M, ZAUBER, ANN GRAHAM · 2020 to 2025
$6.5M
Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling NetworkNCI NIH HHS P30 CA008748NCI NIH HHS U01 CA253913NCI NIH HHS U01-CA253913NIH HHS
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundBlood-based biomarker tests can potentially change the landscape of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. We characterize the conditions under which blood test screening would be as effective and cost-effective as annual fecal immunochemical testing or decennial colonoscopy.

methodsWe used the 3 Cancer Information and Surveillance Modeling Network-Colon models to compare scenarios of no screening, annual fecal immunochemical testing, decennial colonoscopy, and a blood test meeting Centers for Medicare & Medicaid (CMS) coverage criteria (74% CRC sensitivity and 90% specificity). We varied the sensitivity to detect CRC (74%-92%), advanced adenomas (10%-50%), screening interval (1-3 years), and test cost ($25-$500). Primary outcomes included quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained from screening and costs for a US average-risk cohort of individuals aged 45 years.

resultsAnnual fecal immunochemical testing yielded 125-163 QALY gained per 1000 at a cost of $3811-$5384 per person, whereas colonoscopy yielded 132-177 QALY gained at a cost of $5375-$7031 per person. A blood test with 92% CRC sensitivity and 50% advanced adenoma sensitivity yielded 117-162 QALY gained if used every 3 years and 133-173 QALY gained if used every year but would not be cost-effective if priced above $125 per test. If used every 3 years, a $500 blood test only meeting CMS coverage criteria yielded 83-116 QALY gained at a cost of $8559-$9413 per person.

conclusionBlood tests that only meet CMS coverage requirements should not be recommended to patients who would otherwise undergo screening by colonoscopy or fecal immunochemical testing because of lower benefit. Blood tests need higher advanced adenoma sensitivity (above 40%) and lower costs (below $125) to be cost-effective.

Indexed as

ColonoscopyColorectal NeoplasmsCost-Benefit AnalysisEarly Detection of CancerOccult BloodQuality-Adjusted Life YearsAdenomaAgedBiomarkers, TumorFemaleHematologic TestsHumansMaleMass ScreeningMiddle AgedSensitivity and SpecificityBiomarkers, Tumor

Identifiers

PMID38845072
PMCPMC11461157

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.