ArticleScience advances2024
Epidemic outcomes following government responses to COVID-19: Insights from nearly 100,000 models.
Article in Science advances, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 8 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Premature termination of unemployment benefits increased COVID-19 transmission and deaths in the USA.Nature human behaviour · 2026Article
- Uncertainty and inconsistency of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention effects with multiple competitive statistical models.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Regional patterns of excess mortality in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic: a state-level analysis.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Optimal algorithms for controlling infectious diseases in real time using noisy infection data.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Clustering-based methodology for comparing multi-characteristic epidemiological dynamics with application to COVID-19 epidemiology in Europe.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Estimating the extent and sources of model uncertainty in political science.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Does mask usage correlate with excess mortality? Findings from 24 European countries.BMC public health · 2025Article
- What Lessons can Be Learned From the Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic?International journal of public health · 2025Review
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Government responses to COVID-19 are among the most globally impactful events of the 21st century. The extent to which responses-such as school closures-were associated with changes in COVID-19 outcomes remains unsettled. Multiverse analyses offer a systematic approach to testing a large range of models. We used daily data on 16 government responses in 181 countries in 2020-2021, and 4 outcomes-cases, infections, COVID-19 deaths, and all-cause excess deaths-to construct 99,736 analytic models. Among those, 42% suggest outcomes improved following more stringent responses ("helpful"). No subanalysis (e.g. limited to cases as outcome) demonstrated a preponderance of helpful or unhelpful associations. Among the 14 associations with
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.