ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2024
Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Long-term tree population growth can predict woody encroachment patterns.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Pooled it
- Bedrock lithology determines forest demographic responses to drought.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Experimental warming decouples plant-fungal symbiont interactions and leads to a more conservative ecosystem.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Positive Drought Feedbacks Increase Tree Mortality Risk in Dry Woodlands of the US Southwest.Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Linking Climate and Demography to Predict Population Dynamics and Persistence Under Global Change.Ecology letters · 2025Review
- Normalized tree water deficit: an automated dendrometer signal to quantify drought stress in trees.The New phytologist · 2025Article
- Clustered warming tolerances and the nonlinear risks of biodiversity loss on a warming planet.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Given the importance of climate in shaping species' geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data-such that individuals at the cool edge of a species' distribution should benefit from warming (the "leading edge"), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the "trailing edge"). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.