Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38828431›Full record

ArticleOpen mind : discoveries in cognitive science2024

Large Language Models and the Wisdom of Small Crowds.

Sean Trott

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Open mind : discoveries in cognitive science, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Metacognition of ChatGPT in confidence judgements.Frontiers in artificial intelligence · 2026
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. How should the advancement of large language models affect the practice of science?Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  8. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

1 author.

Sean TrottDepartment of Cognitive Science, University of California, San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have raised the question of replacing human subjects with LLM-generated data. While some believe that LLMs capture the "wisdom of the crowd"-due to their vast training data-empirical evidence for this hypothesis remains scarce. We present a novel methodological framework to test this: the "number needed to beat" (NNB), which measures how many humans are needed for a sample's quality to rival the quality achieved by GPT-4, a state-of-the-art LLM. In a series of pre-registered experiments, we collect novel human data and demonstrate the utility of this method for four psycholinguistic datasets for English. We find that NNB > 1 for each dataset, but also that NNB varies across tasks (and in some cases is quite small, e.g., 2). We also introduce two "centaur" methods for combining LLM and human data, which outperform both stand-alone LLMs and human samples. Finally, we analyze the trade-offs in data cost and quality for each approach. While clear limitations remain, we suggest that this framework could guide decision-making about whether and how to integrate LLM-generated data into the research pipeline.

Indexed as

ChatGPTdatasetlarge language modelspsycholinguistic resourcewisdom of the crowd

Identifiers

PMID38828431
PMCPMC11142632

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.