ArticleNature communications2024
The real-time infection hospitalisation and fatality risk across the COVID-19 pandemic in England.
Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A Systematic Review of the Markers of Severity in Acute Respiratory Infections to Inform Primary Care Surveillance.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2025Pooled it
- Estimating the potential public health and economic impact of vaccination timing: A modeling study of COVID-19 vaccination in the United Kingdom.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2026Article
- Recommendations for the analysis of leading indicators in epidemic surveillance.PLOS digital health · 2026Review
- Estimating COVID-19 incidence and prevalence using lateral flow tests in England and Scotland, 2023-2024.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Future disease burden due to the rise of emerging infectious disease secondary to climate change may be being under-estimated.Virulence · 2025Article
- A Bayesian model for repeated cross-sectional epidemic prevalence survey data.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Optimal pandemic control strategies and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions in the United States.BMC global and public health · 2025Article
- Obstructive sleep apnea is a risk factor for incident COVID-19 infection.Sleep & breathing = Schlaf & Atmung · 2025Article
- Factors associated with seeking and receiving home antiviral therapy during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.Discover public health · 2025Article
- Trends in Testing for SARS-CoV-2 Among Healthcare Workers in a Canadian Cohort Study During the COVID-19 Pandemic, June 2020 to November 2023.The Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic led to 231,841 deaths and 940,243 hospitalisations in England, by the end of March 2023. This paper calculates the real-time infection hospitalisation risk (IHR) and infection fatality risk (IFR) using the Office for National Statistics Coronavirus Infection Survey (ONS CIS) and the Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission Survey between November 2020 to March 2023. The IHR and the IFR in England peaked in January 2021 at 3.39% (95% Credible Intervals (CrI): 2.79, 3.97) and 0.97% (95% CrI: 0.62, 1.36), respectively. After this time, there was a rapid decline in the severity from infection, with the lowest estimated IHR of 0.32% (95% CrI: 0.27, 0.39) in December 2022 and IFR of 0.06% (95% CrI: 0.04, 0.08) in April 2022. We found infection severity to vary more markedly between regions early in the pandemic however, the absolute heterogeneity has since reduced. The risk from infection of SARS-CoV-2 has changed substantially throughout the COVID-19 pandemic with a decline of 86.03% (80.86, 89.35) and 89.67% (80.18, 93.93) in the IHR and IFR, respectively, since early 2021. From April 2022 until March 2023, the end of the ONS CIS study, we found fluctuating patterns in the severity of infection with the resumption of more normative mixing, resurgent epidemic waves, patterns of waning immunity, and emerging variants that have shown signs of convergent evolution.
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