ArticleJMIR public health and surveillance2024
Predicting Lung Cancer Survival to the Future: Population-Based Cancer Survival Modeling Study.
Article in JMIR public health and surveillance, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Medicaid Expansion and Overall Mortality Among Individuals With Lung Cancer.The Journal of surgical research · 2026Article
- Preclinical Evaluation of Combined Polo-like Kinase 1 Inhibition and Navitoclax in Experimental Models of Lung Cancer.International journal of molecular sciences · 2026Article
- Confronting nihilism and stigma in lung cancer: The nurse practitioner's role in restoring hope and trust.Journal of the American Association of Nurse Practitioners · 2026Article
- Long-term conditional relative survival trends in extrahepatic bile duct cancer: insights from a population-based retrospective cohort study in a high-incidence Asian Country, 1999-2021.International journal of surgery (London, England) · 2026Article
- MicroRNA‑199a‑3p suppresses non‑small cell lung cancer progression by targeting FTO to enhance m6A‑mediated downregulation of MZF1 and its transcriptional activation of CLDND1.Molecular medicine reports · 2026Article
- First Report of Entrectinib as a Treatment Option for Pure Squamous Cell Carcinoma HarboringInternational journal of molecular sciences · 2025Article
- Integrative Computational Immunology Applied to Identify and Characterize CD8+ T-cell Neoepitopes of Shared KRAS Neoantigen Oncogenic Driver Hotspot Mutations.Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention : APJCP · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundLung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer-related mortality globally, with late diagnoses often resulting in poor prognosis. In response, the Lung Ambition Alliance aims to double the 5-year survival rate by 2025.
objectiveUsing the Taiwan Cancer Registry, this study uses the survivorship-period-cohort model to assess the feasibility of achieving this goal by predicting future survival rates of patients with lung cancer in Taiwan.
methodsThis retrospective study analyzed data from 205,104 patients with lung cancer registered between 1997 and 2018. Survival rates were calculated using the survivorship-period-cohort model, focusing on 1-year interval survival rates and extrapolating to predict 5-year outcomes for diagnoses up to 2020, as viewed from 2025. Model validation involved comparing predicted rates with actual data using symmetric mean absolute percentage error.
resultsThe study identified notable improvements in survival rates beginning in 2004, with the predicted 5-year survival rate for 2020 reaching 38.7%, marking a considerable increase from the most recent available data of 23.8% for patients diagnosed in 2013. Subgroup analysis revealed varied survival improvements across different demographics and histological types. Predictions based on current trends indicate that achieving the Lung Ambition Alliance's goal could be within reach.
conclusionsThe analysis demonstrates notable improvements in lung cancer survival rates in Taiwan, driven by the adoption of low-dose computed tomography screening, alongside advances in diagnostic technologies and treatment strategies. While the ambitious target set by the Lung Ambition Alliance appears achievable, ongoing advancements in medical technology and health policies will be crucial. The study underscores the potential impact of continued enhancements in lung cancer management and the importance of strategic health interventions to further improve survival outcomes.
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