Budget Impact Analysis of Circulating Tumor DNA Testing for Colon Cancer in Commercial Health and Medicare Advantage Plans.

Importance: In a randomized clinical trial, treatment guided by tumor-informed circulating tumor (ct)DNA testing reduced adjuvant chemotherapy use without compromising recurrence-free survival in patients with stage II colon cancer. The potential effects of adopting ctDNA testing into routine patient care is unknown. Objective: To compare the total cost of patient care scenarios with and without the adoption of ctDNA testing. Design, Setting, and Participants: This budget impact analysis was conducted from the perspectives of US commercial health and Medicare Advantage payers. A decision-analytical model was populated with age-specific incidence of colon cancer, use of adjuvant chemotherapy, and use of single-agent or multiagent regimens. Total cost was estimated with the costs of ctDNA testing, drug acquisition, administration, surveillance, and adverse events. The analysis was conducted from September 2023 to January 2024. Exposures: The adoption of ctDNA testing. Main Outcomes and Measures: The incremental cost in the first year following the adoption of ctDNA testing, where testing will affect patient treatment and costs. Results: In hypothetical plans with 1 million individuals covered, 35 commercial health plan members and 102 Medicare Advantage members aged 75 years and younger were eligible for ctDNA testing. In the base case with a 50% adoption rate, total cost savings were $221 684 (equivalent to $0.02 per member per month [PMPM]) for a commercial payer and $116 720 (equivalent to $0.01 PMPM) for a Medicare Advantage payer. Cost savings were robust to variations in assumptions of all parameters in the commercial population but sensitive to variations in assumptions of adjuvant chemotherapy use rates in the Medicare Advantage population. The number needed to test to avoid 1 patient receiving adjuvant chemotherapy was 4 in the commercial population and 10 in the Medicare Advantage population. The budget-neutral cost for ctDNA testing was $16 202 for a commercial payer and $5793 for a Medicare Advantage payer. Conclusions and Relevance: Use of tumor-informed ctDNA testing to guide adjuvant chemotherapy in postsurgery patients with stage II colon cancer was projected to result in cost savings for both commercial and Medicare Advantage payers. Adoption of ctDNA testing is therefore advantageous from a budgetary perspective.