Incorporating preoperative frailty to assist in early prediction of postoperative pneumonia in elderly patients with hip fractures: an externally validated online interpretable machine learning model.

backgroundThis study aims to implement a validated prediction model and application medium for postoperative pneumonia (POP) in elderly patients with hip fractures in order to facilitate individualized intervention by clinicians.

methodsEmploying clinical data from elderly patients with hip fractures, we derived and externally validated machine learning models for predicting POP. Model derivation utilized a registry from Nanjing First Hospital, and external validation was performed using data from patients at the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University. The derivation cohort was divided into the training set and the testing set. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariable logistic regression were used for feature screening. We compared the performance of models to select the optimized model and introduced SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to interpret the model.

resultsThe derivation and validation cohorts comprised 498 and 124 patients, with 14.3% and 10.5% POP rates, respectively. Among these models, Categorical boosting (Catboost) demonstrated superior discrimination ability. AUROC was 0.895 (95%CI: 0.841-0.949) and 0.835 (95%CI: 0.740-0.930) on the training and testing sets, respectively. At external validation, the AUROC amounted to 0.894 (95% CI: 0.821-0.966). The SHAP method showed that CRP, the modified five-item frailty index (mFI-5), and ASA body status were among the top three important predicators of POP.

conclusionOur model's good early prediction ability, combined with the implementation of a network risk calculator based on the Catboost model, was anticipated to effectively distinguish high-risk POP groups, facilitating timely intervention.