ArticlePloS one2024
Trends in cancer mortality among the elderly in China, 2005-2035.
Article in PloS one, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Safety and Cost Evaluation of Modified Medium-Length Catheters in Patients With Advanced Cancer: A Randomized Controlled Trial.Journal of nursing care qualityTrial
- Long-term trends in disease burden of esophageal cancer in China and the forecast until 2050.BMC gastroenterology · 2026Article
- Global burden of MASLD-IBD comorbidity from 1990 to 2021 and trend prediction to 2050.International journal of surgery (London, England) · 2026Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of cataract: A comprehensive analysis and projections from 1990 to 2021.PloS one · 2025Article
- Impact of tobacco exposure on global deaths of digestive diseases: Findings from 1990-2021 and projected trends to 2042.Tobacco induced diseases · 2025Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundWith the appearance and aggravation of the aging society, cancer has become one of the major problems that threaten the life and health of Chinese residents seriously.
objectiveTo explore the cancer epidemiological characteristics among the elderly in China from 2005 to 2016, and to provide strategies for cancer prevention and treatment.
methodsStratified analysis was conducted on the cancer mortality data of the elderly aged ≥60 years in China, which were selected from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report. Joinpoint regression model was used to calculted average annual percentage change (AAPC) to estimate the time trends. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to explore the age, period and birth cohort effect on the risk of cancer death. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict trends in cancer mortality among elderly by gender and region to 2035.
results2005-2016, cancer mortality in the elderly in China showed a decreasing trend (AAPC = -1.2%, P<0.001). Cancer mortality in rural areas was higher than that in urban areas, but the urban-rural difference gradually narrowed (t = 6.1, P<0.01). The APC model showed that cancer mortality increased with age. The relative risk (RR) for the period effect decreased. RR was lower for the later- born cohort than that for the earlier-born cohort in rural areas. Lung cancer mortality ranked first in both male and female, and showed an increasing trend among female in the 60-64, 80-84 and ≥85 age groups (AAPC60-64 = 1.0%, AAPC80-84 = 0.8%, AAPC≥85 = 2.0%, all P<0.05). By 2035, cancer mortality for the elderly was predicted to decline nationally, by sex and in rural areas, while rising in urban areas.
conclusionCancer mortality in the elderly in China showed a decreasing trend from 2005 to 2016, but it was still higher than the world average. Early cancer screening is important, especially in the elderly male and in rural areas.
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