ArticleNature communications2024
Human movement and environmental barriers shape the emergence of dengue.
Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Prevalence of dengue in febrile patients in Peru: A systematic review and meta-analysis.PloS one · 2025Pooled it
- Dengue virus infection.Nature reviews. Disease primers · 2026Review
- Assessing the impact of intervention strategies on dengue dynamics in Shenzhen, China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Rethinking Dengue Preparedness in the Era of Climate Change, Urbanisation, and Digital Health: A Structured Narrative Review.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2026Review
- Global source-sink dynamics of dengue viruses and epidemic establishment in areas on the fringe of endemic transmission.National science review · 2026Article
- Environmental, climatic, and social risk factors of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome and the implications of climate change.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Advances in mosquito-borne disease surveillance using machine learning.New microbes and new infections · 2026Article
- Modeling the effects of vector species composition and temperature on the risk of dengue virus.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal patterns and forecasted trends of dengue in Saudi Arabia: a national surveillance study, 2012-2024.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- DENcode: A model for haplotype-informed transmission probability of dengue virus.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- From promise to pitfalls: immunological lessons from dengue vaccines and their implications.NPJ vaccines · 2026Review
- The evolution of public health statistical modeling approaches and how to advance their incorporation into modern arboviral surveillance.Journal of medical entomology · 2026Article
- Proactive Initiative to Establish a Dengue-Free Factory Assessment Framework in Dengue High-Risk Industrial Areas: A Narrative Review.Interdisciplinary perspectives on infectious diseases · 2026Review
- First molecular evidence ofCurrent research in parasitology & vector-borne diseases · 2026Article
- Characterization of the most austral autochthonous dengue outbreak reported in the world (city of Bahía Blanca, Argentina, January-June 2024). A cross-sectional study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2025Article
- Dengue Epidemiology in 7 Southeast Asian Countries: 24-Year, Retrospective, Multicountry Ecological Study.Interactive journal of medical research · 2025Article
- Meeting Report on an Integrated Research Agenda for Mosquito-Borne Arboviruses.Open forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
- A State-of-the-Science Review of Long-Term Predictions of Climate Change Impacts on Dengue Transmission Risk.Environmental health perspectives · 2025Review
- Unleashing the potential of artificial intelligence in infectious diseases.National science review · 2025Article
- On the tracks of an uninvited guest, the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus in Cyprus.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
21 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Understanding how emerging infectious diseases spread within and between countries is essential to contain future pandemics. Spread to new areas requires connectivity between one or more sources and a suitable local environment, but how these two factors interact at different stages of disease emergence remains largely unknown. Further, no analytical framework exists to examine their roles. Here we develop a dynamic modelling approach for infectious diseases that explicitly models both connectivity via human movement and environmental suitability interactions. We apply it to better understand recently observed (1995-2019) patterns as well as predict past unobserved (1983-2000) and future (2020-2039) spread of dengue in Mexico and Brazil. We find that these models can accurately reconstruct long-term spread pathways, determine historical origins, and identify specific routes of invasion. We find early dengue invasion is more heavily influenced by environmental factors, resulting in patchy non-contiguous spread, while short and long-distance connectivity becomes more important in later stages. Our results have immediate practical applications for forecasting and containing the spread of dengue and emergence of new serotypes. Given current and future trends in human mobility, climate, and zoonotic spillover, understanding the interplay between connectivity and environmental suitability will be increasingly necessary to contain emerging and re-emerging pathogens.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.