ArticleScience advances2024
Evolution repeats itself in replicate long-term studies in the wild.
Article in Science advances, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Inversion characterization inbioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Additive effects of environmental and demographic variation shape the repeatability of evolution across replicated experiments.Evolution letters · 2026Article
- Migratory jackpot individuals fuel rapid ecotype shifts in Galaxias fishes.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Rapid adaptation and extinction in synchronized outdoor evolution experiments ofScience (New York, N.Y.) · 2026Article
- An Evolutionary Mosaic Challenges Traditional Monitoring of a Foundation Species in a Coastal Environment-The Baltic Fucus vesiculosus.Molecular ecology · 2025Article
- Ecological stoichiometry and life history theory, not the identity of genomic variants, predict rapid adaptation.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Unique genetic bases of repeated life-history divergence associated with high altitude adaptation inbioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The extent to which evolution is repeatable remains debated. Here, we study changes over time in the frequency of cryptic color-pattern morphs in 10 replicate long-term field studies of a stick insect, each spanning at least a decade (across 30 years of total data). We find predictable "up-and-down" fluctuations in stripe frequency in all populations, representing repeatable evolutionary dynamics based on standing genetic variation. A field experiment demonstrates that these fluctuations involve negative frequency-dependent natural selection (NFDS). These fluctuations rely on demographic and selective variability that pushes populations away from equilibrium, such that they can reliably move back toward it via NFDS. Last, we show that the origin of new cryptic forms is associated with multiple structural genomic variants such that which mutations arise affects evolution at larger temporal scales. Thus, evolution from existing variation is predictable and repeatable, but mutation adds complexity even for traits evolving deterministically under natural selection.
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