Sociodemographic Heterogeneity in the Associations of Social Isolation With Mortality.

Importance: There are limited data on whether the vulnerabilities and impacts of social isolation vary across populations. Objective: To explore the association between social isolation and mortality due to all causes, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), and malignant neoplasms focusing on heterogeneity by sociodemographic factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a moderator-wide approach to examine the heterogeneity in the association of social isolation with all-cause, CVD, and malignant neoplasm mortality using baseline data from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study in 2010 and 2011. Eligible participants were adults aged 65 years or older without heart disease, stroke, cancer, or impaired activity of daily living across 12 Japanese municipalities. Follow-up continued until December 31, 2017, identifying 6-year all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and malignant neoplasm mortality. Logistic regression assessed effect modification by age, gender, education, income, population density, marital status, and employment on mortality associations. Data analysis was performed from September 13, 2023, to March 17, 2024. Exposure: Social isolation, determined by a 3-item scale (scores of 2 or 3 indicating isolation) was the primary exposure variable. Main Outcomes and Measures: Six-year all-cause, CVD, and malignant neoplasms mortality. Results: This study included 37 604 older adults, with a mean (SD) age of 73.5 (5.9) years (21 073 women [56.0%]). A total of 10 094 participants (26.8%) were classified as experiencing social isolation. Social isolation was associated with increased all-cause (odds ratio [OR], 1.20 [95% CI, 1.09-1.32]), CVD (OR, 1.22 [95% CI, 0.98-1.52]), and malignant neoplasm mortality (OR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.01-1.28]). Stratified analysis showed associations of social isolation with all-cause and malignant neoplasm mortality among people with high income (highest tertile all cause: OR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.06-1.53]; malignant neoplasm: OR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.02-1.60]), living in areas with high population density (highest tertile all cause: OR, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.26-1.72]; malignant neoplasm: OR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.11-1.70]), not married (all cause: OR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.15-1.53]; malignant neoplasm: OR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.02-1.52]), and retirees (all cause: OR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.14-1.43]; malignant neoplasm: OR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.10-1.48]). Formal testing for effect modification indicated modification by population density and employment for all-cause mortality and by household income and employment for neoplasm mortality. Conclusions and Relevance: Social isolation was associated with increased risks of all-cause, CVD, and malignant neoplasm mortality, with associations varying across populations. This study fills an important gap in research on social isolation, emphasizing its varied associations across demographic and socioeconomic groups.