Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38776169›Full record

ArticleStroke2024

Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis.

Barrak Alahmad, Haitham Khraishah, Meghana Kamineni, Dominic Royé, Stefania I Papatheodorou, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Yuming Guo, Eric Lavigne, Ben Armstrong, Francesco Sera and 9 more

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Stroke, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Building the model: a review of input structures in extreme temperature-health.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2026
    Pooled it
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Stroke and climate change: A World Stroke Organization scientific statement.International journal of stroke : official journal of the International Stroke Society · 2026
    Review
  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. Article
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  11. Article
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  15. Article
  16. Extreme Heat and Arrhythmia in Patients With Implanted Devices.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2025
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

Barrak AlahmadEnvironmental Health Department (B.A., A.S.B., A.Z., J.S., P.K.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA.ORCID 0000-0002-9523-9537
Haitham KhraishahCardiology Division, University of Maryland Medical Center, University of Maryland, Baltimore (H.K.).ORCID 0000-0003-0003-5089
Meghana KamineniHarvard Medical School, Boston, MA (M.K.).ORCID 0000-0002-6698-5151
Dominic RoyéClimate Research Foundation, Madrid, Spain (D.R.).ORCID 0000-0002-5516-6396
Stefania I PapatheodorouDepartment of Epidemiology (S.I.P.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA.ORCID 0000-0002-9451-9094
Ana Maria Vicedo-CabreraInstitute of Social and Preventive Medicine (A.M.V.-C.), University of Bern, Switzerland.
Yuming GuoClimate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia (Y.G.).
Eric LavigneSchool of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Canada (E.L.).ORCID 0000-0001-6146-9839
Ben ArmstrongDepartment of Public Health Environments and Society (B.A.), London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-4407-0409
Francesco SeraDepartment of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications G. Parenti, University of Florence, Italy (F.S.).ORCID 0000-0002-8890-6848
Aaron S BernsteinEnvironmental Health Department (B.A., A.S.B., A.Z., J.S., P.K.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA.ORCID 0000-0003-1703-1041
Antonella ZanobettiEnvironmental Health Department (B.A., A.S.B., A.Z., J.S., P.K.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA.ORCID 0000-0001-8170-4736
Eric GarshickPulmonary, Allergy, Sleep and Critical Care Medicine Section, Department of Medicine, Veterans Affairs Boston Healthcare System, West Roxbury, MA (E.G.).ORCID 0000-0001-5931-5638
Joel SchwartzEnvironmental Health Department (B.A., A.S.B., A.Z., J.S., P.K.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA.ORCID 0000-0001-6168-378X
Michelle L BellSchool of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT (M.L.B.).ORCID 0000-0002-3965-1359
Fahd Al-MullaDasman Diabetes Institute, Kuwait City, Kuwait (B.A., F.A.-M.).
Petros KoutrakisEnvironmental Health Department (B.A., A.S.B., A.Z., J.S., P.K.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA.
Antonio GasparriniEnvironment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society (A.G.), London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-2271-3568
Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Network

Funding

National Cohort Studies of Alzheimer's Disease, Related Dementias and Air PollutionR01AG066793 · NIA · HARVARD UNIVERSITY D/B/A HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI ZANOBETTI, ANTONELLA · 2020 to 2025
$4.2M
A national study on the effects of air pollution and temperature on children's neurodevelopmental outcomesR01ES034038 · NIEHS · RUTGERS BIOMEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES · PI Stefania Papatheodorou · 2023 to 2026
$2.8M
Medical Research Council MR/V034162/1NIA NIH HHS R01 AG066793NIEHS NIH HHS R01 ES034038Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundExtreme temperatures contribute significantly to global mortality. While previous studies on temperature and stroke-specific outcomes presented conflicting results, these studies were predominantly limited to single-city or single-country analyses. Their findings are difficult to synthesize due to variations in methodologies and exposure definitions.

methodsWithin the Multi-Country Multi-City Network, we built a new mortality database for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. Applying a unified analysis protocol, we conducted a multinational case-crossover study on the relationship between extreme temperatures and stroke. In the first stage, we fitted a conditional quasi-Poisson regression for daily mortality counts with distributed lag nonlinear models for temperature exposure separately for each city. In the second stage, the cumulative risk from each city was pooled using mixed-effect meta-analyses, accounting for clustering of cities with similar features. We compared temperature-stroke associations across country-level gross domestic product per capita. We computed excess deaths in each city that are attributable to the 2.5% hottest and coldest of days based on each city's temperature distribution.

resultsWe collected data for a total of 3 443 969 ischemic strokes and 2 454 267 hemorrhagic stroke deaths from 522 cities in 25 countries. For every 1000 ischemic stroke deaths, we found that extreme cold and hot days contributed 9.1 (95% empirical CI, 8.6-9.4) and 2.2 (95% empirical CI, 1.9-2.4) excess deaths, respectively. For every 1000 hemorrhagic stroke deaths, extreme cold and hot days contributed 11.2 (95% empirical CI, 10.9-11.4) and 0.7 (95% empirical CI, 0.5-0.8) excess deaths, respectively. We found that countries with low gross domestic product per capita were at higher risk of heat-related hemorrhagic stroke mortality than countries with high gross domestic product per capita (

conclusionsBoth extreme cold and hot temperatures are associated with an increased risk of dying from ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. As climate change continues to exacerbate these extreme temperatures, interventional strategies are needed to mitigate impacts on stroke mortality, particularly in low-income countries.

Indexed as

StrokeAgedCross-Over StudiesExtreme HeatFemaleHemorrhagic StrokeHot TemperatureHumansIschemic StrokeMaleMiddle Agedclimate changeextreme coldhemorrhagic strokeischemic stroketemperature

Identifiers

PMID38776169
PMCPMC11196199

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.